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To: Windsock who wrote (132327)	4/15/2001 4:18:27 AM
From: Amy J	Respond to of 186894

Thread, 1 year comm inventory according to this post (timeline echoes): =============================================== Message 15658821 To:kodiak_bull who started this subject From: CommanderCricket Friday, Apr 13, 2001 9:48 AM For all you techie's out there, let me drop you another item from ground zero. I have been working on putting together a global supply agreement with Jabil. Spent the last couple of weeks going through the BOM's and pricing for several large programs. When we submitted our RFQ, Jabil notified us that they had enough inventory for the rest of year. We are a speciality supplier that manufacturers sole source product and lots of commodity product. When I looked at their current inventory, I about came out of my chair. This isn't over next quarter. It's going to take till 1 Qtr of 2002 before we see any growth. CSCO, NT, etc.. and the EMS providers can't continue to sell at their current P/E's. There is negative growth this year. It's amazing in hindsight that these companies have held up as well as they have. You'll see Cisco at $10 this year. The problem I have in trading this is that no one is really talking about how bad the inventory problem is. I've looked around and it's generally treated as a 1 quarter issue. Therefore you continue to get weeks like we had this week. I'm comfortable in the patch because of earnings growth. I'm not comfortable trading tech. I made few nice swing trades since January, buy in general had my head handed to me. Have a great holiday everyone ======================================= siliconinvestor.com To:CommanderCricket who wrote (3307) From: dabum3 Friday, Apr 13, 2001 9:57 AM Respond to of 3345 Thanks CC for the information. As I mentioned yesterday, I believe it's still time to short the techs. JNPR, BEAS, CSCO, RFMD, BRCD and INTC are my recommendations. I have an acquaintance who works in the semiconductor industry. They just laid off 20% of their workforce and made most of the others take two weeks off without pay due to NO ORDERS coming in. This rally was based on hope. Hope isn't a long term catalyst. CSCO at 6 will probably be fair value. dabum =================================== To:CommanderCricket who wrote (3307) From: Gottfried Friday, Apr 13, 2001 11:40 AM The unspoken assumptions are that Jabil told the truth and Jabil's situation is typical. Gottfried ====================== To:rich evans who wrote (3327) From: CommanderCricket Friday, Apr 13, 2001 8:17 PM .... Solectron states they have 4.5 billion dollars in inventory and are nogotiating with Cisco. Inventory in this business is like real estate, possession in 9/10th of the life. Solectron will eat it the majority of it (along with the suppliers). ======================================== Regards, Amy J