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Strategies & Market Trends : Trade What You See, Not What You Think -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Threei who wrote (499)	4/15/2001 10:11:20 PM
From: Apakhabar	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 867

...major law: market works in a way that makes majority lose and allows handful to win. Not only do I accept this (not just as a law but also as results from surveys) but I also consider it the backbone of why I do not emphasize TA in my trading methods. If it really is true that only a handful win, is it logical to believe that they win because they use or understand the best TA? Certainly if TA were that "scientific" then computers would be making all the money, just a computer, slowly, has managed to become the world's greatest chess player, or very close to it. Mark Twain said, "It's easy to quit smoking, I've done it thousands of times." I think of TA in this vein. It works all the time, it's always working! And yet, most of its practitioners end up failing. Now most of us here reject the notion that "TA must be bogus because so many of its users don't win" because we understand that TA is neutral, and that interpretation is paramount. So I think we all understand that among that group of traders who practice rational money management, what separates the winners from the losers must be intuition, talent, or any word you want to choose that refers to that which ONLY that one particular trader possesses. Certainly it can be argued that TA is necessary to develop intuition. Or at least that an understanding of the psychological and emotional underpinnings of what creates technical indicators is needed. That would IMO be putting TA to much better use: focusing always on the matter of how to understand the market better from an intuitive point of view, and not from one based on statistics, mathematics, or even (here comes heresy) probability. It just makes sense to me that if "only a handful win" it's because they are using abilities that the market cannot absorb, because the market doesn't even know they exist.