Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (5792)	4/14/2001 8:19:58 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

re: "Scores of old SI members have simply disappeared off the face of the earth" Compared to non-SI investors, the ones here are more likely to be in Nas and tech stocks. Not many SI investors had HD or even IBM as their biggest holdings. We were into the likes of AOL and CSCO, and I suspect we got hurt a lot more than the average investor. Smart people also tend toward overconfidence and overleverage. Given the amount of sideline money, I suspect a lot of the "disappeared" are no longer posting because they found themselves 40%, 60%, 80% down from the 4/00 highs, got scared, went to 100% cash, and are still there. My guess is, it'll be 2002 or later before they're back.

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (5792)	4/14/2001 8:29:52 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Lee: Re: "Go back to October 9th 1998, and look at a chart of that reversal & look at a chart of last april 10, 2000 and see what it looked like? << Those two dates were typical reversal patterns with double bottoms approxamately 6 weeks apart. Our current low on the NASDAQ and NDX was on a large decline with no previous low anywhere near here thus I expect at minimum a retest in the future. The most bullish looking charts are the OEX and SPX but the double bottom is a bit too close together to convince me we are making a major trend change." Excellent analysis and these are conclusions that I reached as well. But let me add on more thing you did not mention. We just had the biggest bear market in the Nasdaq in its history. A huge decline measuring over 65% and we are in a profit meltdown and a deteriorating economy. I find it hard to believe in this environment that we are going to "v" bottom here and never turn back without at least one retest. There has just been too much carnage in the averages for a "v" bottom. One would have to argue that it is different this time for this type of sudden reversal too take place and that has been a losing argument of late for sure. Re: "Basically what we are looking for is a drop starting late Monday through Wednesday then another leg up to around 2200 NDX. Of course we are not THAT confident and also say have your stops in place in case we drop earlier in our mid term call." If you are not confident in this projection and if you see a retest coming eventually, I am not sure why you would be doing anything right here except booking profits and considering some shorts.