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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kash johal who wrote (35774)	4/14/2001 8:14:24 PM
From: Mani1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Some food for thoughts about the general market from Barrons. Warning, it is very bearish. Message 15662013 Mani

To: kash johal who wrote (35774)	4/15/2001 12:28:06 AM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Kash, <How they expect to hit these volumes using RDRAM and dual channell MB - i have no idea.> I too have been scratching my head on this one. It makes sense to ramp P4s aggressively given the excess capacity but P4s handicap is infrastructure. I can understand dropping the price of 1.3 and 1.4G P4s to even a number as low as $100 to make up for some of the infrastructure costs (no RDRAM rebates at that price) but I am baffled on why Intel wants to collapse the high-end pricing. $200 discount for platform I can understand but sub-$400 price point on the top of the line 1.7G chip is totally puzzling. The way I look at it Celeron/PIIIs can fill the $40-$150 price points and P4, adjusted for platform differential, can fill the $300-$600 price points. That leaves Athlon a comfortable play in the $40-$300 range and there is very little Intel can do to close the $150-$300 window until SDRAM based infrastructure kicks-in. Intel should thank its stars that AMD bungled Palomino all this time - with good laptop chips and higher speed desktop chips AMD may have shown some red on Intel's bottom line (in Q2). Chuck

To: kash johal who wrote (35774)	4/15/2001 11:56:05 AM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

kash: "If they sell 30-31M units in Q2." They'll be lucky to ship 26 million in Q1 as most analysts are suggesting total Q1 market equals 30 million units, 80% of which would give INTC 24 million Q1 units, some 20% fewer than your baseline of 30 million in Q1...Flat to down in Q2 implies 25 million assuming no loss in market share, a hugely incorrect assumption, imho... P3 and celeron ASP's are falling off a cliff as both are fast becoming obsolete and by the end of Q2, your assumed $175 and $90 ASP for each respectively (including mobiles) will likely turn out to be at least 10% too high and maybe even 25%, if AMD soon introduces its mobile pony... INTC has no choice but to ramp its P4 as fast as possible but, even if executing perfectly with the P4 ramp (another huge assumption), INTC is at least 1 year away from reversing the current negative trends that are unravelling and that may become apparent to even the most die-hard (i.e Paul Engel) INTC aficiondos with Tuesday's revelations...Even more troubling for INTC than the requirement of perect execution over the next year, is the not impossible prospect, that P4's 1 year out are confronted by an increased price/performance gap owing to evolution over this same interval of palomino and sledgehammer AMD products... INTC has not recently faced competition in the high end and, to date, they have responded abysmally in the face of such competition...Just too many hurdles in front of the P4 and too much execution risk at INTC to be optimistic about future prospects at INTC...Indeed, in the face of so many hurdles, the odds are increasingly against INTC coming anywhere near last year's revenues of $33.7 billion, and the odds are increasingly favouring the prospect of a loss, perhaps a significant loss, at INTC in Y2001...