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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: foundation who wrote (97480)	4/15/2001 10:36:26 AM
From: saukriver	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 152472

>>>"..Qualcomm's stock will languish until it can be explained easily to the non-technically inclined..." Time for you to sell and move on. That may be good advice. Certainly would have been solid advice when the stock was at $200. <g> But it may just be that the stock is too dense for the average (perhaps equally dense) investor. In which case, Qualcomm will will indeed languish because it cannot be easily explained and/or fundamental questions (like patent expiration) are just avoided on message boards like these. saukriver

To: foundation who wrote (97480)	4/16/2001 1:53:10 PM
From: Cooters	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

One of the difficulties assigning some type of forward valuation to QCOM comes from the vast, almost unending potential of CDMA devices beyond the current base of mobile voice by CURRENT CDMA carriers. Absent some horrendous calamity, this subscriber base will expand, network upgrades will occur several times, phone replacements will continue, and earnings growth of 20% or so seems reasonable. But the potential beyond this limited view includes: - WLL - India and the US(LWIN) represent two ends of the spectrum in terms of teledensity, which means CDMA's potential for both replacing and displacing landline involves not only the current market of some hundreds of millions of copper lines, but some billion(s) of copper lines not yet run. Consider how fast this could happen. - Current spectrum not yet CDMA - Just start with China, Nextel, and TDMA in LA. Pretty big potential just there. - New spectrum - At least under current plans, it is all ours. Only a matter of when. Lots of things could happen here to either speed this up or slow it down, but we won't be talking 20% EPS growth when this comes online. - Beyond handsets - Just too damn big to quantify. IMO, requires at least 1x networks and a continued flurry of app development, but we are not too far off. Plus, when one network can support these apps and others cannot, we either take all the subs away from the competition(sorry ass at that), or they switch. Either way is fine. The point is a nice conservative view of EPS growth yields a steady, moderate appreciation from these depressed levels. Nothing more. Current valuations take into account little to nothing of the items listed above, maybe only small scale versions of one or two. No longer are these factors priced into the stock, as they were with a 200 trailing PE. This is upside now. Cooters BTW, I was in Jamaica last week. I take full credit for the NAZ being up 4 days in a row, QCOM's up move, and the release of the US crew. Used my G* phone for the first time too, though I think it is time to cancel a service I never use.