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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: UnBelievable who wrote (94457)	4/16/2001 12:05:13 AM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

nahh The new Ferrari's are great, and the ASTON's are much better. If you want a headache get a Lambo.

To: UnBelievable who wrote (94457)	4/16/2001 7:29:22 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 436258

There is too much consensus at this juncture, especially among the chart-huggers. Regarding the NASDAQ, they see us topping now on this leg, then a leg down, perhaps a deep one but no new lows, then another push up that could last a couple of weeks. It is also the scenario that the chart-hugging side of me favours. BUT, I am not falling for it. It's too obvious. I feel no need to be in there pitching today, tomorrow, this week, ... you don't have to trade all the time. I'll wait a little here until I can discern some hint of what surprise is in store for us, because I am quite convinced that the chart-huggers will be surprised in the end. If I were to be aggressive here, I would fade this rally -- I certainly would not buy it here. Last week you could see the signs of skepticism that the rally had legs: bull/bear polls, Americlowns selling, p/c's not collapsing fast enough -- you get the idea. I saw this unfold and still did not respect it. Won't happen again. In the wide view, the disregard for fundamentals and lack of respect for the bear at this juncture is astonishing. We are a generation more ignorant of bear market mechanics than any that has come before. Various professional analysts and other serious commentators (some on SI) are suggesting that maybe, just maybe, the worst is behind us. It strikes me that this is the sort of thinking that bear market rallies are supposed to engender. It's nonsense -- this is only beginning. This bear market is going to last from 4-6 years, minimum. I am not one of those who thinks that the laws of speculating have changed over time. Call me old-fashioned. Bull markets give birth to bear markets. Bear markets allow new bulls to run. What folly it is to think that this truth can be side-stepped. Now, this thinking concerns time. How long did the bull last? What's reasonable guess for the length of the bear? What about distance? I believe, as do many, that the depth of the bear is determined by and large by the height of the bull. Taking neither a best nor a worst case scenario then, we get reasonable targets that are very far from where we are now. I would not even consider going long for position trades (months) unless everything gets cut in half again from here. This does not mean I would not trade long, just that I do not think we can have a floor that I would call safe at these lofty levels. Nor does it mean we will not see glorious rallies -- this has been mentioned enough times here that I need not say more. So far, in terms of depth, the bear has only reclaimed the late-stage speculative blow-off in tech. Non-tech has been hurt, but only a little. The credit bubble, the bubble, has yet to show serious leaks. What we have seen so far is Bear Lite. It doesn't yet deserved to be mentioned along with the great bears and is not worthy of the great bull that preceded it. (As an aside, I think the bears here have to have more respect for the bear's rallies. After the meat and potatoes is done, we may well get a nice desert, but the time to be heavily long will be behind us. Some will recall me using this analogy some weeks ago. The only exception to this safe form of playing the bear, is to assume that we are in a 1929-932 wipeout, and the odds of that are low.) Thus far, the market has been dealt the sort of blow that it has not seen in 20 years. I do not think it very likely that we turn up from here, or even turn up after another set of lows, putting this nasty, but brief episode behind us. If we are indeed in a bear market, and God knows we are due, then we'll turn up when equities become undervalued. It's so simple, it must be hard for people to accept. If the economy does not fall deep into the crapper, this will require at least a 50% haircut from here. For the short-term, there is one thing more important to me than anything else: non-tech has to turn here and put in a new down-leg. If it does not, than various bullish scenarios still draw breath. A new set of lows -- soon -- in non-tech will tell me that the bear will not be stopped and that I must stay the course, even in the face of compelling rallies.