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To: GST who wrote (123721)	4/17/2001 8:52:48 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

>> . The jury is out on whether or not we tip into recession. It is wishful thinking to believe we are out of the woods. It is too soon to tell. << I bought a couple hundred shares itwo last week. Now that Cisco is writing down $2.5 B inventory, with $1.5 B remaining. It is obvious the inventory management systems these tech companies employ is useless for managing inventory size. I wonder if the result will be more emphasis on itwo and manu sebl orcl and sap. Or these existing systems will be discredited and some vendor with a new and more alluring siren song will come on the scene. It is very obvious none of these companies had a working system to forecast demand. It seems car companies did a far better job this time. They reduced their inventory starting last October before it became a big problem.

To: GST who wrote (123721)	4/17/2001 8:12:04 PM
From: Victor Lazlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

well put, GST. I think it will be several months at least before we see any light at the end of the flat economy tunnel. And that's the best case scenario, IMHO. I think this Summer there will be lots of tech stocks making new lows like we still cannot even imagine, even after all the carnage that has occured to date. Pessimism seems to be maxing out at this point. The market, imo, is going to be hoping for some good news toward the end of the current Q, say late May and well into June. And optimism might increase. But I don't think much good news will come. And for this reason, I think there could be an absolute bloodbath this summer. Victor