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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (95131)	4/17/2001 11:17:46 AM
From: Shack	Respond to of 436258

Smelly looking smelly. Gone red. Actually, the SOX looks like it may be forming a near perfect H&S clearly seen on most intraday charts.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (95131)	4/17/2001 11:25:36 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

What if this morning's exercise was all in order to confound CW (market will dip.....buy the dip....higher high 23rd)..as you have mused...

To: AllansAlias who wrote (95131)	4/17/2001 11:58:33 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 436258

I'm on alert here for extension of this rally. I see the bullish e-wave scenario. As you say, a lot of people were expecting to correct the past week of short-covering. Would it be unexpected enough if the correction was delayed until after one more high? A breakout would surprise a lot of people, me included, and would be bought "in soize". That could produce the kind of high necessary to finally go back down and retest this years' lows. Or, was this morning the "correction" everyone was looking for? If so, they produced this morning's run, and are now done. If that's true, a retest of this morning's lows would fail. I don't yet see that happening. Despite remarks to the contrary, this morning's run was NOT just the action of Ameritraders. In fact, I expect the data to show that they were not overwhelmingly buyers today. I continue to detect the smell of burning mufu Clownbux. Judging from the Trimtabs numbers, a lot of sideline sitters were pushed into stock funds for fear of missing out on the bottom. That money has to be burned before we get any down. It's important to realize that tech doesn't even need net buying interest to go up here, just as it didn't need net selling interest to go down early last year. All it takes is for the pressure to come off, and the prices snap back. The selling pressure will remain off until the mufu redemptions reassert themselves. Do I sound confused? Wishy-washy? I should, because I am. I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO DO HERE - and the important thing is that I know enough to step aside when I get into that position. There's a train leaving either way every day... I remain a long-term bear, and I will not try to catch bear market rallies; I merely want to step out of the way to minimize risk and await the excellent shorting opportunities. I'm inclined to step a little further onto the sidelines, and wait to see if the momentum carries the Naz to a breakout. BC

To: AllansAlias who wrote (95131)	4/17/2001 9:56:14 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

>>In general, I don't think one can fade the TA-types in the same way as you fade the broader market. You would not have done very well to fade the likes of me, heinz, and Shack over the last number of months. Not saying we get it right a lot of the time or anything, just that we are not the sort of group you'd do well fading.<< At this point, Allan, TA is the only thing that can be faded. That's all the "mouthpieces" talk about any more anyway. All we need to know is that "bad news" is being bought -- that is bullish. There is nothing else to be had that could rationalize buying stocks right now. I have no desire to "fade" you or anyone on the thread. I'm only observing the unanimity of opinion about where the market is going and it isn't you, Heinze and Shack. It's just about every thing I read except for a few dyed-in-the-wool fundamentalists who will be telling us to avoid stocks for years to come, probably even when pessimism reigns supreme. I put more stock in what I know about human nature than whether or not something has broken a trendline or not. By all the chatter on the boards, I am suprised that the P/C is not much lower -- everyone and his mother believe that an extended run up in the NDX and/or tech shares in general is coming. Maybe everyone has it right this time ...