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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Yorikke who wrote (3757)	4/17/2001 2:20:26 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Mike, I read that this weekend and had been meaning to post it, everyone should read Russell's thoughts, and he's probably right that there is a 1 out of 3 chance for a move back to the long term trendline over the next several years, and the real "long term" trendline is way down there at 2500 opr 3000 or so on the DJIA as Richard states. good quote on why there will always be another round of inflation at some point in the future in a fiat currency I've moved almost entirely into Treasury bills. But that's me. I believe in the bear. When I was in the Army Air Force during World War II, sitting in the nose of a B-25 and flying combat missions as a bombardier, I knew what my worst case could be. I could be killed by a piece of flak from a German 88 [gun] blowing me to kingdom come. The problem was, the only thing I could do was pray. Now, prayer is powerful, and I like to think it saved my life. But the crux of the story is, I knew all about my worst case, and there wasn't a damn thing I could do about it. Today, I can visualize a worst case in the U.S. stock market, and there is something I can do about it. I can make myself and my family as safe as possible by moving into short-term government paper, meaning T-bills. Remember one thing: The U.S. itself can't go broke because it can print paper money. The paper may not be worth much a year from now, or it may be worth a lot, but it is worth something because the U.S. says it's legal tender. So the dollar can fluctuate versus other currencies, but I can buy a house or a hamburger with dollars, and other things I need to stay alive. thanks for posting, John

To: Yorikke who wrote (3757)	4/18/2001 10:38:31 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Here is a NASD chart showing how we bounced off of the downward trendchannel today. The NASD also was repelled by the .382 retracement of the Jan to April decline. You'll also notice we managed to close 3 points below the 50 dma after having been above it. geocities.com (when you click on the link it will take you to yahoo geocities but you will not see the chart. simply click on the url of the new browser that is generated and it should then show the chart) The bigger Fibonacci resistance is at 2250-60 and then up near 2400. John