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Strategies & Market Trends : Disciplined Investing, especially the NAIC way -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steven Dopp who wrote (140)	4/17/2001 5:58:30 PM
From: The Philosopher	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 469

We have had ADCT for some time in our club, and when it got into the 60s our SSG said sell. So we sold half our holding, more than covering our cost. So what we have left is cost free. But we should have believed the SSG and sold it all, obviously. IMO it is a buy at these prices, but for the long term. I see it at low growth if any growth for the next year. After that, it will, IMO, return to reasonable growth. The SSG only lets you put in one growth rate. But you can hand calculate what you think the earnings will be in five years and just use that on the SSG (if you're using toolkit, just experiment until you find the growth rate that gives you that fifth year earnings figure.) ADCT is also a prime example of a stock where it makes a difference where you start your growth line from. I understand that Toolkit 4 lets you move your growth line up and down.

To: Steven Dopp who wrote (140)	4/18/2001 11:14:37 AM
From: - with a K	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 469

I am in the camp that says SSGs are critically important and valid, but they don't tell all, and therefore, should only be part of the buy decision. They don't address today's market issues like earnings warnings, slowdowns, and layoffs and competitor's having difficulty. They don't tell you if we're in a bull or bear market, and as the saying goes, the best decision in a bear market may be to just wait on the sidelines. SSGs can't look at a stock graph and suggest it's a falling knife and you should be patient and wait for a base to form at x price. As has been discussed, they're an adjunct to the whole decision process, albeit an important one. One thing some of us discussed was that the presentation last month on ADC missed some of these crucial issues. No PERT was presented; the previous lay-offs and warnings were not mentioned; and the new CEO was not mentioned. Duhhhhhhh. FWIW, my club met last night and after licking our wounds from our tech-heavy portfolio, we voted to buy more Fannie Mae. A member presented an SSG which we commented was beautiful in its consistency. He used estimated EPS growth of 14.5%; low price of $56, giving a buy range of $56-94; had a forecast high of $171; up/dwn of 4.9 to 1; and potential annual return of 17% Someone commented that FNM was a safe play with declining interest rates and that while "boring" this is a good move at this time. I agree.