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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (75192)	4/17/2001 6:30:33 PM
From: FrozenZ	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Thanks for a dose of reality on this thread. I was thinking I was losing my mind with the after hours markets going up wildly on intel's dismal earnings. Clear away all the pro-forma smoke and mirrors and intel is at a p/e of 100 with declining margins, declining market, declining everything and no growth. I agree this is about sentiment and fed money supply ramp up. So Haim, I guess you're with me in the camp thinking we'll tank again after earnings season.

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (75192)	4/17/2001 6:40:45 PM
From: Robert New	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

The market has been in accumulation mode the past couple of weeks if you compare up versus down volume. I continue to believe that investors and the market will start looking past Q2 and focus on a Q3 to Q4 turnaround. The market will factor it in 4 to 6 months in advance. Also given the large numbers of shorts in the market, if firms do start coming out with increased visibility such as RFMD tonight and INTC seeing some stabilization in their business and an expectation of a 2nd half rebound then we could be at a trough right here. I continue to be underweight telecom and semi's and overweight software and storage. I have an average weighting in fiber optic companies. ONIS came out tonight with an excellent report guiding revenues and income higher not only for Q2 but for the balance of 2001. They are seeing very strong visibility. The differences between you and I are what makes up a market. So be it.

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (75192)	4/17/2001 6:47:26 PM
From: lisalisalisa	Respond to of 99985

It seems true. Where is the fear though? The great lesson all the speculators said they had learned? I heard many bulls say things like "never again", or "what was I thinking?" but I get the feeling that if the market started shooting back up they would all jump right back in based on price movement alone. They would then defend this price movement as the market "looking out beyond the bad news", which is in fact just speculation and faith. Sometimes I feel like they just said these "non bullish" things because they thought it was the prudent thing to say, not because they actualy believed it. Sometimes I think the bulls, having heard over and over from investment rags and TV what makes a bottom, say these things to try and wish this bottom into place. They know it is not prudent to be wildly bullish, yet like a drug addict they can not help it. "I did not drink for 2 weeks, that means I can stop and must not be an alcoholic" "Stocks are down 70% on the naz, P/C almost reached one and the VIX was real high too, that must mean the bubble is over and we showed enough fear, the bottom is in" The problem is it is said every damn day and they can not help themselves. They are addicted. The bubble seems alive and well to me.