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To: Andrew G. who wrote (95978)	4/18/2001 5:54:37 PM
From: Mike M2	Respond to of 436258

Andrew, wage gains have not kept pace with inflation over much of the past 30years- there have been a few good years. see the Commerce Dept. Survey of Current Business and you will see that the growth of disposable consumer income is negligible since Sept 00. The recession is young you will see a rise in savings rate, unemployment - layoffs announced everyday. I would agree that real estate has done much to stimulate consumption but consider the affordability of housing compared with 30 -40 years ago. Home prices have risen faster than incomes in many parts - this is not sustainable. I see homes that were about $12,000 after WWII now going for $300,000 - same houses. Minimum wage was maybe $1.15/ hr back then now effectively $8 in my state. Think about it. Mike

To: Andrew G. who wrote (95978)	4/19/2001 9:51:40 PM
From: B.REVERE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

As you say,consumer confidence is the key to keeping our economic recession from lasting more than a few months. The key to that confidence is not the "stock market" but employment. As the level of unemployment rises, the confidence level of the public will fall, regardless of which phony poll's numbers they run out every few weeks. J6P will not be listening to the CNBS crap they call "breaking wind" as the new numbers are flashed, they'll be listening to their friend or neighbor who's just been pink-slipped. They'll be wondering if they're next and how it's time to start saving for a rainy day, in case, the armed guards show up at his desk with an empty unwrapped box. The layoffs for the last few months that have been announced are huge and they haven't come close to hitting the "official" numbers that you see on "profit from it" TV. J6p got bloodied last year and a lot of these guys are out of the market, so that huge pile of cash sitting in money market funds are there as "rainy day" funds so when the inevitable happens, at least they'll have some time to look for something else and keep making those "minimum payments". 10 trillion worldwide dollars( 5 US) has just gone to money heaven, as Greenie cuts, the dollar will crack and so will these markets. Without foreign support, (esp.Japan), this house of cards will finally fail. Later,