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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andrew G. who wrote (95986)	4/18/2001 5:39:35 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 436258

You will not have to question whether or not it has happened when it happens. You won't be discussing thresholds ...

To: Andrew G. who wrote (95986)	4/18/2001 6:17:44 PM
From: Mike M2	Respond to of 436258

Andrew, the US $ has derived some its strength from extraordinary gains in our financial markets, various carry trades -yen, gold, Euro, the perception of an economic miracle in the US which is starting to look like a mirage. One could argue that the strength of US $ in the face of all the bad news is simply momentum . A continuous stream of poor profits ,economic slowdown, and market declines will impact the US $ eventually. tough love takes time but it will come. mike

To: Andrew G. who wrote (95986)	4/18/2001 9:34:03 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Warning: Wordy post..Andrew (Heinz, jump in if you will) 2 clownish things makes me wonder about the post-bubble period and the aftermath, and if there is the potential (I don't say possibility, but potential) for a bit different outcome then what one would expect from other bubbles.. Remember, this is clown thinking. But clowns can smoke-and-mirror for a long-time <G> (1) The dollar. Under normal circumstances, one would think that the dollar would weaken due the massive print job performed by the Fed....which of course would bring on the nastiness of consumer goods inflation, and at some later point, higher rates/a tightening Fed. But (and here's where I can use some help)...currencies are relative, not absolutes. It is the dollar vs. the yen, the dollar vs. the Euro...so there is always some "wiggleroom" to strength/weaken the underlying supply/demand without (perhaps) damaging the currency (in the short-run...and perhaps some in the long-run)...As bad as some of the stuff the Fed is doing, it is competing against the hapless Yen. It just needs to be "less bad"...So many, apparently, think iwe simply don't play as bad as those guys. The Euro should be a problem for the dollar, but Europe still has structural problems (less competitive labor/wage laws, federal government debt, liabilities) which put the currency at a somewhat natural disadvantage. Further, you've got other natural U.S. advantages: the whole "safe" haven thing....for example, there are hardly any Latins I know...who would even consider the Euro for a "safe haven" move....even if unemployment went to 8% here. Rightly or wrongly, U.S. is seen a good place to park it. Oil is priced in $$$. I even read where Russian mafia has switched all funds from D-Marks to Dollar...for they didn't want to get bothered by authorities when turning in marks for Euros.. Now, the gold bugs would jump up here and say "buy gold"....but that is such a huge transition, I think, in many people's mind....I'm not saying it won't/can't happen, but I just think circumstances have to become much worse for many to consider alternatives to the dollar (as a core holding). Thus, something that should be a competitor to the dollar now is marginalized. (2) Nasdaq wealth evaporation. On the surface, a 3Trillion loss should be cause for large changes in consumer behavior. I read once, as stocks were rising from 95-00, consumers increased their spending habits .04 for every dollar rise in equities. Now, since we've seen a fairly permanent loss of much (all?) of that 3T, you'd think that consumers would started cutting back on their purchases (to an equal or greater extent). But that has not happened in a huge way yet...even though stocks starting getting pummeled long ago. Why isn't the behavior the same on the downside as the upside? I like the work of "new school" of behavioral psychologists studying the markets on this. Their thought is (and mine too) that human beings are not entirely rational. They do not always act as you expect, or, at times, they delay what should be natural behavior (because it is unpleasant).. My point here is that "saving for retirement" is a bit of a vague concept anyway. Many folks who lost money, who are in their 30s, 40s, and even some in 50s....well, at least some of them may greet this entire thing with a <shrug>, after probably anguishing for a few days... since retirement money almost isn't like real money....it sits there for years and you usually don't touch it. So maybe some of these folks are just going to eat the losses...plan on working a couple more years at the end of their life, or just rationalize that the stocks will come back at some point. Thus, the possibility for no consumer buying pattern change even though trillions in wealth gone. Its not rational, but who does unpleasant things easily? They should change, they know they should...they just can't (bring themselves to do it).. I could see these 2 very CLOWNISH things putting a wrinkle (even if just temporarily) in the aftermath of the bursting of the biggest financial bubble in history. Maybe even some of the worst super-damaging effects of the post-bubble period can be avoided by this group clownish behavior continuing for a while... Having said all this, when this summer hits, gasoline and energy bill are running high; layoffs hit home; and the market is lame....I think the shite is going to hit the fan... Please, anyone, rip this to shreads....I beg you...