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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (45559)	4/18/2001 6:33:34 PM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 70976

Jacob, You are certainly right about the mood swings. A couple of days ago, i indicated i did not see the consumer meltdown you are seeing. Yes, the layoffs will have an effect but what AG did today should offset that. The mainframes guys have come back, the chip guys seem to have bottomed, the chip equipment guys are getting the benefit of the effects of intel capex spending setting up the next wave of technology and soon the cisco's of the world will get it right. I would advise caution on your part just as you avoid caution for me. I am not adding and perhaps you should beware on the short side. It looks like another gap open tomorrow for nasdaq. Mike

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (45559)	4/18/2001 7:49:40 PM
From: mitch-c	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

... investors are seeing the rosiest possible future, and buying. Today was partly short covering, but mostly some of that 2T in sideline money coming off the sidelines. Panic buying today, just like we've seen panic selling, repeatedly, over the last year. We're thinking alike ... I see one more trip to the bottom of the well ahead. Intel's right boot and the Fed's left boot gave us one huge kick in the ass today, but it doesn't appear to have held strongly. The action recently looks like a classic bear rally. I'm still pretty sure we go on to new lows (that's why I didn't cover my shorts today), but I have no idea how long or how high the market goes first. I agree with that also, except I'm not sure we'll see new lows - just significantly lower than current prices. Remember when I said something about two-to-three-week sentiment cycles? I see this clearly as a point of (relative) maximum optimism. I think other news - bad numbers from other companies, CA electric woes resurfacing, or whatever - will punch this rally in its tender glass jaw. We need a LOT more reinforcement for the expectations to hold up. I'll revisit this in early May ... about the time the "euphoria" cycle should return from manic to depressive. - Mitch

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (45559)	4/18/2001 9:50:47 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 70976

Ray Bloch disagrees with you. On CNBC's business center tonight, he believes that this rally has got legs - for 3 months or more.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (45559)	4/18/2001 10:12:37 PM
From: zbyslaw owczarczyk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Remember how, only a few days ago, everyone was asking, "Should I sell my stocks, and go to the sidelines, to avoid further losses?" The answer to that question is still "yes". The only difference is, now, investors can get out at better prices. so investors who sell will make shorts like me very happy. do you belive in what you wrote, or that was just you wish list?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (45559)	4/18/2001 11:27:06 PM
From: FJB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, Be careful here. The historical relationship between interest rates and stock markets strongly favors being long in an environment in which the Fed is easing. I understand you are a trader, but you still don't want to get hurt by this. I recall a couple weeks ago that CNBC reported there was more money in money market funds(1.xxx trillion), than at any point in history. If the average Joe thinks he is missing the boat, he might put the money to work. Bob