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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (96303)	4/19/2001 1:21:49 PM
From: Andrew G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

So, perhaps Heinz, do you really mean is that there is No bubble bursting to come but just chronically deteriorating economic conditions? If you have an abrupt event in mind when you characterize it as 'bubble bursting' could you please quantify it for us. Even if just to ball park it. Paint a scenario. A big bank loan default or collapse ? How would the bubble burst happen? what are the conditions ? Is it more likely this year or next ? Otherwise, I believe we are talking in wish-washy terms that may reaffirm the sentiment of many on this thread but lead no where. I honestly agree with your analysis of conditions. But you have not yet quantified this bubble bursting. Until you do, I sense that you are attached to some undefined circumstance which I can't envision or see happening.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (96303)	4/19/2001 8:37:42 PM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

debt service at nearly 15% of disposable income, both record highs Can you provide a source/reference for this? Per my prior efforts, I put the Total Interest Burden, as a percentage of disposable personal income, close to 3%. I realize the debt to disposable income ratio would be higher, yet believe this "interest coverage ratio" is the key to understanding the consumer debt. Message 15543838 While we are at it, I'm ready to thrust a shaft of malcontent into the comparisons by Richard Russell, in last weeks Barrons. While I respect the man, I don't believe you should compare the PEs on stocks during the 73/74 bear with today, as inflation and interest rates are totally different. The macro environment today is not the same as then, and I would go so far as to say that PE ratios should be lower if interest rates were pushing 10% today. If anything, the comparisons done in that article point out the potential folly of comparing the past and present using such a narrow indicator in a vacuum.