Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: High-Tech East who wrote (75505)	4/19/2001 3:02:09 PM
From: KevinMark	Respond to of 99985

Nascasino just acquired an Aikman special after hitting the wall @ 2161. All down gaps have now been filled since March 8th.

To: High-Tech East who wrote (75505)	4/19/2001 3:18:14 PM
From: tony	Respond to of 99985

I agree with u Ken. Recession has not hit the General economy and it will becuase landscape has changed. WIth so many layoffs, high paying jobs, hiring freeze all over USA sounds like 91-92 or worst. With pension plan being wiped out, we will not face labor shortages as we all will work till we are 70, atleast I plan on working till 75.

To: High-Tech East who wrote (75505)	4/19/2001 3:37:28 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Ken, regardless if you are right or wrong I see this market as a casino with one group of people betting in one direction and the houses doing every thing to make them lose money, not all as they want they should come for more. The days of fundamental analysis and investing are long over, and momentum investing took over those manipulator had the best returns in the last several years IMHO. Presently they will take in as much as they can. The fact is that all the CEO's in High Tech, WS or FED did not anticipate the comming earning recession only six months ago. As such they are just trend follower in everything no smarts needed there. Haim

To: High-Tech East who wrote (75505)	4/19/2001 3:44:00 PM
From: JH	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Hi Ken - Six months ago, your forecast of a recession would have been prescient. Today, it's nothing more than a rear-view mirror. The key to forecasting the health of the economy rests with understanding the term structure of the credit markets, whether it's the Treasurys, Agencies, or Corporates. The relationship between short term interest rates and the yield on longer term debt can forecast the economy more accurately than any mortal. For a number of months late last year, the Treasury yield curve was inverted. My explanation will be highly simplified, but suffice it to say that an inverted yield curve is the best predictor (with a lead time of about nine months) of an economic slowdown, never having failed once in the past forty years. Half a year ago, in September, the spread between the yields on 1-yr bills (6.1%) and 10-yr bonds (5.90%)were inverted, at negative 20 bps. Today, the 1-yr bills are yielding 3.95%, with the 10 yr notes at 5.29%. That is a positive spread of 134 bps, which is not only historically wide, but more importantly, indicates that the economy is being supplied with a huge amount of liquidity. An overly steep yield curve may possibly indicate runaway inflationary expectations/fear, but in absolute levels, 5.29% on the 10-yr notes do not indicate that to be the case. The bottom line is that the liquidity will not only heal today's weak economy, it will PROPEL the economy. There is sufficient liquidity in the markets to inflate equities in a very significant way, and I strongly believe that the most profitable strategy now is to "buy on dips".

To: High-Tech East who wrote (75505)	4/19/2001 7:54:39 PM
From: Stephen M. DeMoss	Respond to of 99985

Ken, You make good points (again). However, if the insanity is back, it is foolish to fight it. The question if this is another January situation (up then down harder) or if it is a sustained up turn. It is amazing to me how these same stocks that were totally unloved two weeks ago are now more than double (and in some cases triple) what they were. I have long positions which I sold calls on, and I have some long term puts. Am thinking of cashing in the puts at a loss and putting into Brcm or some other former high flyer which hasn't doubled yet <G>. Investing? No. Wise in light of reality out there? No. However, it may be wiser to become an idiot for a couple weeks (and make money), than be right but miss the insanity (and lose money). Btw, any updates on the commercials? I heard some people were pretty pissed at the surprise cut yesterday. Caught real short. Thoughts> Steve D.