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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JH who wrote (75510)	4/19/2001 3:51:54 PM
From: samim anbarcioglu	Respond to of 99985

JH, that's a very astute and eloquent analysis. Thank you, >>and I strongly believe that the most profitable strategy now is to "buy on dips". I might add, also cover your short positions. Remember capital preservation is the most important rule. Sam A.

To: JH who wrote (75510)	4/19/2001 3:56:44 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

JH, i posted the something similar about the yield curve and the double bottom in long yields recently. I agree with all of your post, the bond market is smarter than any of us, and is now forecasting a recovery, at the turn of 2000, the media and the economists were super bullish on the economy, the sentiment on bonds was screaming bearish, people were talking about the fed hiking rates into sept 00, the curve was inverting, we basically have a reverse of all those conditions right now.

To: JH who wrote (75510)	4/19/2001 4:00:13 PM
From: High-Tech East	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

<<Six months ago, your forecast of a recession would have been prescient. Today, it's nothing more than a rear-view mirror.>> ... not quite right. JH ... nine months ago I was forecasting a recession <g> ... it is slow in getting here, but it is on the way (in my opinion) ... <<The key to forecasting the health of the economy rests with understanding the term structure of the credit markets, whether it's the Treasurys, Agencies, or Corporates.>> ... I believe that typically you are correct (at least since world war II), but this is different, more like the late 1800s through the 1930s ... it will take a lot longer to cure our troubles economically than it has in recent years ... it takes time to cure a mess like this ... and we have not yet reached the overall recession itself .. Ken Wilson