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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: XenaLives who wrote (3480)	4/20/2001 11:50:21 AM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 52153

Paula, Bad journalism from respected news sources or bad analysis from incompetent analysts have always moved stocks. In the short term, that is. It may be painful, but frequently, it's an opportunity. I think QLTI is an example of that which is still unfolding. They have the only treatment for age related macular degeneration. (MRVT is in Ph III but probably 1 1/2 to 2 years away from approval should their results warrant). Leerink Swann took the company's earnings conference call caution (about growth rate during summer) last Spring; did a survey to confirm the company's suspicions; then spun that into a story that the expected growth would never materialize. Yesterday's news release and next week's earnings report will probably put that to bed. Without Visudyne, 0.5M people can choose to go blind during a period of 2-4 years. With it, their vision level is preserved (or improved in a small number of patients). Reimbursement issues are well on their way to being resolved around the globe; and are resolved in the key countries. I still expect QLTI to beat its former highs by a very wide margin within the next year. Approval for a wider label should happen next year; with diabetic retinopathy being added as well. Due to the negative press stemming from the Leerink analysis, QLTI has been priced as a has been. I expect that Visudyne will grow into more than a $1B drug. Ian.

To: XenaLives who wrote (3480)	4/20/2001 11:55:57 AM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52153

Paula, FDA wants to take DHEA off of over the counter That's an interesting angle I hadn't thought of. Certainly patients currently taking the drug would be safer than with their present OTC version of unknown potency and composition. OTOH, the FDA scientists might be reluctant to give their stamp of approval to a drug of uncertain efficacy. This would be a perfect case for an intermediate label - "safety OK, efficacy uncertain." Kind of like the Scottish criminal justice system, which adds "unproven" as a third possible verdict. (Really "Guilty, but the witnesses were too drunk to be reliable." <g>) Peter