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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (45675)	4/20/2001 6:51:09 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

FWIW: sold @ 51, shares of XLNX purchased recently @ 34 and 31; sold @ 27.95 and 27.97, shares of JDSU purchased recently at 17.5 and 18, respectively. OBJECT LESSON: XLNX reported $.19 EPS. Annualized, that is $.76. My $51 sale price gave it a 67 PE. XLNX predicted a 15-25% sequential sales decline next quarter. If we assume 20% and a proportional earnings decline, we get an EPS of $.15, annualized to $.60. Based on $.60 my $51 sale price gives it a 85 PE. XLNX has a long term growth potential in the 25-30% range. Yahoo research predicts 27% over the next 5 years. 67 to 85 is a high PE for a company expected to grow 27% and is unusually high when the company's growth is currently negative. How high will the greater fool theory drive it?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (45675)	4/20/2001 8:46:35 PM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 70976

Cary, Agreed that it's premature to buy KLIC, but I currently believe the same of most of the front end companies as well. Scott K has done wonders in transforming the company. If his initiatives in flip chip and test are successful in leveraging his other businesses, this could just turn out to be an outstanding investment. But I'd expect to see a major pull back by or before the end of this summer. FWIW, Ian.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (45675)	4/20/2001 10:02:56 PM
From: scott_jiminez	Respond to of 70976

The 'current environment' has existed since last fall. During this period investors have consistently considered buying various equipment companies based, at least partially, on the internal leadership and guidance of individual companies. Performance of selected equipment companies since 9/28/00: LRCX +35.0% KLIC +21.1% KLAC +15.0% NVLS +7.0% TER -2.5% AMAT -11.1% ASML -20.1% AMKR -24.9% [Klic was 4th among this group today, 'balance sheet' notwithstanding] Group +2.4% As accurately noted by Ian, Scott K has transformed his company. KNS' long effort to diversify their revenue base is slowly becoming manifest. The goal of becoming the 'Amat of the backend' is taking shape. In short, many investors HAVE considered buying Klic in the current environment...and have indeed acted after such consideration. Furthermore, if there is any investment in the entire pantheon of equipment companies where expressing expectations of performance - or blithely dispensing buy or sell suggestions - is wholly imprudent, it is Klic. Just as last summer's implosion was a complete shock, we are likely in a mirror image environment right now. That is, no one will be able to explain why the stock continues to rise...until it makes perfect sense, in September - December, as the tide in equipment spending finally turns.