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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kapkan4u who wrote (36903)	4/21/2001 7:00:57 PM
From: fyodor_	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Kap: If Intel can flood retail channels with cheap high GHz P4s, it can get very ugly. And where do you propose to find the RDRAM to go with those millions of P4s? Until such a time as an alternative platform is in place, Intel cannot move the P4 into the mainstream. P4, RDRAM and i850 are just too expensive. Sure, Intel can subsidize... and has done so... and will likely continue to do so, at least to some degree... but still... -fyo

To: kapkan4u who wrote (36903)	4/21/2001 7:09:24 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

kapkan4u: "AMD is still vulnerable because of its reliance on retail. If Intel can flood retail channels with cheap high GHz P4s, it can get very ugly." The greater risk is that the P4 won't fly at any price!!! It's amazing to me how easily the assumption of P4 success is embraced by so many. Nothing, but nothing to date, supports such an assumption...Celeron and P3 ASP's are in a nosedive as they accelerate to obsolescence as the entry bar is raised to 1 gig...Assuming INTC ships 25 million processors in each of Q2 and Q3 (may be a large assumption) I have trouble imagining even 3 million P4's in Q2 and 5 million in Q3, all the while INTC margins continue to erode owing to continuing P4 price cuts and falling off demand for celerons and P3's... It would seem likely that demand for 1 gig amd up cpu's will rapidly increase over the rest of the year to the point where excess demand will exist for the rather meagre combined quantities of Athys and P4's at 1 gig and up that can be produced given a market of 30 million units per quarter...By the end of Q3, perhaps 50% or more units sold (i.e 15 million in total) will be at 1 gig or better... Throw in the mobile pony and servers into the above scenario and AMD's prospects for the year look absolutely rosey in any relative sense no matter what INTC does with P4 pricing...

To: kapkan4u who wrote (36903)	4/21/2001 10:08:28 PM
From: dale_laroy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

"If Intel can flood retail channels with cheap high GHz P4s, it can get very ugly." If Intel floods the retail channels with cheap high GHz P4s they will not have sufficient capacity to service the corporate sector. If corporate can't by Intel, they will have to buy AMD by default.

To: kapkan4u who wrote (36903)	4/22/2001 1:47:42 AM
From: Petz	Respond to of 275872

kap, re: If Intel can flood retail channels with cheap high GHz P4s, it can get very ugly. $350 CPU does not a cheap PC make. AMD will sell just as many $150 1.3-1.5 GHz CPU's as Intel sells 1.7's, especially considering the Rambus tax. In an all out price war Intel will have no profit and AMD still 0.15 to 0.20. A price war like that would last exactly until the next quarterly report. I think there's at least a 50/50 chance Intel will be that aggressive. But their cash+investments is actually lower than AMD's if you calculate cash as the months of production that the cash could produce. Petz