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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (1077)	4/21/2001 11:38:14 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

Mr GreenJeans re <<<<I think BB will be changing his mind about this once he looks closely at the numbers. It fits his MOBAO scenario. What it does not fit is what is actually happening in the past couple of months. I think his thinking is changing at least that is what the newsletter is indicating.>>>> This seems to an interesting dilemma which directly affects my decisions given my bloated tech holdings. Bob's model likes to get within around 5% of the turn on a major change. Now let's say some factors in his model may have improved. Given the big rally recently wouldn't that drive valuations higher? Bob is not looking to call a bull after it's already run away on the upside. Now if you think this powerful rally will continue for many weeks that leaves two possibilities. 1) Bob will miss the call until it's too late and 2) some kind of retest of the lows that would have everything fall into place. With a retest, time would have passed and money supply would continue to have improved. The economy will be a little closer to bottoming. Valuation at a retest low will be favorable and the model can go positive. Now each scenario requires a different action by me and others. Do we partly sell a current rally and wait for moabo? Alternately do we sit and ride the end of this rally to lows at a retest with reduced cash? Someone blurted that basic question to Bob but of course it's not one that he'll answer on the air anymore. I think the power of the current rally especially with many sitting in QQQ's and equivalent since October would have made a bulletin appropriate giving a couple of words on the outlook. BTW, did I use the return key enough Hank?<g> Marc

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (1077)	4/23/2001 5:45:29 PM
From: Wally Mastroly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

Couple of reasons confidence is waning: Layoff announcements..Shadow of a Recession ??? cbs.marketwatch.com - Business investment is still soft: usatoday.com