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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Green who wrote (75701)	4/22/2001 8:35:18 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 99985

Don, I fully expect to see a worldwide recession next rear sometime. The question is how high does irrational exhuberance get in the meantime. I agree with Zeev that a retest of the lows this summer is likely and thet the DOW really hs not even begun to thonk about dropping yet. Unfortuntely the only way I can play the downside is with options and a very very good timeframe is required. Being off by a month and a half is no good. Looking back, leap puts and sitting on them from Nov would have been a great idea. Then adding on the bounces rather than panicing out. Hindsight is of course 20-20. M

To: Don Green who wrote (75701)	4/22/2001 10:49:42 PM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

U.S. vs Japan: The answer, based on demographics, is a qualified no. Japan had a steadily rising birthrate, with a war-related interruption, until 1949. Then, for reasons I don't claim to understand, their birth rate began dropping. With a moderate reversal for a period, their birth rate basically continues to fall. Forty years after their birth rate peaked, their Market and economy peaked. We have a shorter, less virulent version of the same situation coming. Our immigration adjusted birth rate ended its plateau in 1961, and dropped through the mid-70s. This is an over-simplification, but there will be negative repricussions from the extended downtrend in the birth-rate in our country as well.

To: Don Green who wrote (75701)	4/23/2001 12:03:32 AM
From: gfs_1999	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

<Could the US go the way of Japan?> IMO No, it could be worst than Japan if Alan G try to save the stock market again. But if Alan G forget about Stock market and Stock market come back to Fundamental I just see a consolidation period until earnings start to increase again. I never understood why a little island like Japan that import everything and copied everything could be the first economy in the world. When US become a leader in Computer/Software thinks changed, Cars and Electronics made by other Asia countries also increased competition making Japan product expensives. IMO Japan will never see old times again but Japa could surprise solving Bank problems. USA and may be Germany are still my best choice to make money. USA companies are around the world just a campaign against US could change it. If Israel wasn't in a war zone it will be my 3th choice. Countries that have tecnology, biotech and money will do better . But if we don't care about pollution control I don't see a future ahead. Regards GFS