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To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (97891)	4/25/2001 12:58:17 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

I think it comes in lower, but to see Red we probably need to see the revision next month. of course with home sales as brisk as they are it shows that there is still some economic activity out there.

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (97891)	4/25/2001 1:18:21 PM
From: Rarebird	Respond to of 436258

<1 Q GDP is due out on Friday. The consensus is 0.9. What are the chances of it actually being in the red? Me thinks that could be the case!> You got that right IMO. I see GDP -1.0%. Message 15671903

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (97891)	4/25/2001 1:18:38 PM
From: Dr. Jeff	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

Regardless of Friday's GDP, I think the clowns will spin it. If it comes in weaker they'll say "Yippeeee, the Fed has a green light to cut rates further." If it comes in as expected or better than expected, they'll say "Yippeeeee, we're not going into recession." Either way they'll spin it and likely bid this pig up furiously IMO. One of my personal issues with the definition of a "recession" is the starting date. Lets say things went negative in Mid- February and stayed weak or weakened further until Mid-September. (That would actually be 7 months), However, it may not show in the official #'s because of the overlap of the dates not corresponding to the quarterly calender. Q1 May not go negative on the whole, but Q2 would be, then Q3 would not because things upticked in Sept. (using my example). Does that make sense? I probably am not explaining it properly, but I think I know what I mean. -bg-