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To: kapkan4u who wrote (133386)	4/26/2001 8:30:04 AM
From: dale_laroy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

"SVG delays 193-nm tool shipments; Intel and other chip makers impacted" I was hoping for some observations by others first. But, this is how I see it. Solid plans for any Q3 launch at 0.13-micron are probably not affected. Any equipment needed for a Q3 launch should have already been delivered. This means that Tualatin should ship in volume on schedule, but ramp may be much slower than planned. Since AMD is only planning on sampling in Q4, their Q4 plans should be unaffected. However, volume shipments of any processor from AMD in Q1 2002 may not occur. I did not look for a transition to SOI until Q2, and I do not look for this equipment delay to impact Q2 2002. The recent rumor of a delay of the 2.0 GHz Willamette into Q3, possibly Q4 of this year, could be related to the delay in 0.13-micron equipment. Best guess is that volume shipment of Northwood will be delayed at least until Q1 2002. Premature introduction of the 2.0 GHz Willamette would, in this case, leave Intel with an extended period of time in which they would not have any ramp in speed grade. On the positive side, if Intel has gotten the word out to mobo vendors that Northwood has been delayed by 3-4 months, some vendors may go ahead and design some socket 423 only mobos that support DDR SDRAM. Additionally, this is a net positive for the entire industry. If AMD was planning on building out the final 40% of Fab30's capacity at 0.13-micron, they may be stuck at about 60% buildout for the remainder of the year, more likely about 75% buildout until about the middle of Q4. Likewise, Intel will be stuck at slightly more than current capacity until about the middle of Q4. What this means is that both AMD and Intel will be producing fewer processors throughout the second half of this year, potentially resulting in a shortage situation from which both can benefit. Additionally, with 0.13-micron capacity build on hiatus, capital improvement costs should drop in Q2.

To: kapkan4u who wrote (133386)	4/27/2001 12:35:37 AM
From: Paul Engel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Kal Kan - Re: "What is your take on this: SVG delays 193-nm tool shipments; Intel and other chip makers impacted, analysts say " Intel will have to make do with the older 193 nM tools - with smaller numerical apertures - for about 4 more months. That could slow their .13 micron ramp a little - but not a lot. Fortunately (??), the industry downturn will make this , if not a non-event, at least a second order event. Paul