Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (45929)	4/26/2001 9:09:46 PM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Some signs that the bottom is already set...... For those interested read the reports, just released today by GLW, VSH, and AMKR..... All three companies are predicting a modest decline next quarter except for GLW which is predicting about 20 to 25 % growth in the fiber optic area. (good news for CSCO). The difference in these reports versus those that came out last week is that these companies are giving very precise guidance for the next quarter. None of that fog stuff that was ao much in vogue last week. It is my opinion that with solid guidance for the next quarter investors will step to the plate. Jerome

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (45929)	4/27/2001 10:40:23 AM
From: Joseph Beltran	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

"Technology is primarily business capital expenditure. While consumer spending drives the whole economy, your "holds up" and the current excesses in capital equipment don't necessarily add up to a significant rise in semi sales. Without such a rise, semi-equip orders will be flat to down from here. Current semi-equip prices do not discount months of flat to down orders from current levels." Cary: One year ago one could have looked at the book to bill historical chart and concluded that we were closer to the top of a cycle than the bottom, despite the fact that there might be a few more quarters of increasing earnings and/or bookings. Today I can look at that historical chart and reach the opposite conclusion. I don't think the market counts on precision when it comes to matters such as these. Relatively close estimates are sufficient. I have nearly full long positions in all my favorite semi-equipment stocks. Risk/reward equation is in favor of longs here IMHO.