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To: AllansAlias who wrote (1256)	4/28/2001 11:53:36 AM
From: Shack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

I made a similar comment to bc. I want to know what series it is ending though. Who knows, maybe it is beginning the last gasp of the bull market. I doubt it of course.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (1256)	4/28/2001 9:17:25 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

I assume you refer to the lengthy NYA diagonal that I posted geocities.com and not the COMPX, despite the post you actually responded to. There are two contracting structures I've been referring to: one is the Mar-Apr "leading diagonal" in the picture referenced above, the other the three-day-long "contracting triangle" in the COMPX 15min chart. Regarding the NYA "leading diagonal": despite the fact that it really looks like a valid leading diagonal, it in fact is not, according to my rule set. The waves I've labeled b&d don't come close enough to overlapping; they supposedly need to be within 10% of c of overlapping, if they don't overlap. They don't qualify, so as far as I can tell, it must still be treated as an impulse. Please double-check me here. Regardless of the interpretation here, it is IMPULSIVE in nature. The difference is in the potential of this last wave. If it were a leading diagonal, it should not get much farther than the upper resistance line (although guidlines say it frequently breaks it marginally). Since it is an impulse with "3" the longest, the guidelines say 1 & 5 should be roughly equal. Note that this would put the target for the move another 2-3% higher, at NYA 660. Also note that this is where enormous horizontal resistance lays in wait. Also note that we could attain this target sometime in the middle of next week, which coincides oddly enough with HB's big turn date. I think this might qualify as a big turn, since it will be the most significant down NYA has seen since the early March ugliness. Since this up wave is impulsive by any interpretation, and because it came off a new low for the move, it must be either "A" or "1", hence the leading diagonal rationale. I think "B" will be very deep, based upon the enormity of the resistance above as well as HB's significant turn date, and "C" should not surpass the high of "A" as a result (ABC should be a flat). Support for potential turns within the putative leg down: NYA 600, 566, and 613 all loom large. If it is a zig-zag, I prefer "a" down to 600, "c" down to 566. But note that this structure, like the Naz structure we have been tracking, demands that "C" up exist in the not-too-distant future. So, this would say that the financial sector bear wet dream is still a ways off in time. The trade will be to begin fading strength in the Dow/NYA in the middle of next week, and become more aggressive if it tips its hand appropriately toward the latter part of the week. Failure of the NYA to reach the upper TL before breaking the lower TL would be a sign of significant weakness. BC