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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (15770)	4/28/2001 10:23:16 AM
From: mystifier4	Respond to of 18929

Hi Tom! You have an email awaiting your attention. thanks, Myst

To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (15770)	4/29/2001 8:24:58 AM
From: Steve Grabczyk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18929

Tom: I understand the model completely! Remember the panic when Andy realized that his first sells would be at a loss to his first buys? This is simply a mental hurdle for newbies to overcome. My echoing Keith's comment about LIFO and SQUAT simply meant to say that within AIM, the individual ratios of sells to buys in terms of gain or loss really don't mean anything. You pointed out in your post that what really matters is that within RL's 10-8-5-4-8-10 model, one can turn 10,000 into 1,000,000. So IMHO, LIFO gains stated out of context to the overall strategy of AIM tend to overstate one's results (actual or implied). Regards, Steve PS: The weather here in Dallas has been perfect all last week! High of 80 yesterday with low humidity and light winds. My son and 4 of his friends started the swimming season yesterday. Water temp was measured @ 76 (still too chilly for us old farts), but they had fun. It looks like a good week coming up as well. It will be tough for me to prepare my presentation what with all of the distractions out there.

To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (15770)	5/1/2001 12:13:15 PM
From: rgammon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18929

Tom, The cycles of the chip makers and their suppliers fit Mr L's prototype cycle almost perfectly. TXN, for example, has a historical price pattern in the late 90s of 30% appreciation per year and a 2:1 variation in price. For 2000 and 2001, the 2:1 price swing is still there, the appreciation is not. My analysis has generally ignored the longer term cycles of the chip companies. That cycle appears to be about 2 to 3 years in length. The problem with these cycles is that 16 cycles x 3 years per cycle is 48 years!!! Quite a LONG time to wait, and with inflation nibbling away, $1,000,000 won't be ANYTHING like what it was at the beginning. Robert