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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (36460)	4/29/2001 10:33:44 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

Inflation's Revival: Trend or Mirage?... latimes.com Best Regards, Scott

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (36460)	4/30/2001 11:17:17 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

Stocks Up on Hopes for Economic Rebound Monday April 30, 10:26 am Eastern Time By Elizabeth Lazarowitz <<NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks climbed in early morning trading on Monday after the latest economic numbers showed Americans' income and spending habits were proving resilient, lifting hopes the U.S. economy may avoid a recession. The data eased investors' worries about the economic slowdown even further after U.S. growth data on Friday showed unexpected strength and sent stocks sprinting higher. ``There's a general feeling the economy's better than we were giving it credit for, and that's good news for the market,'' said Arthur Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co., adding that the lack of any major earnings disappointments also soothed traders' nerves. High-tech heavyweights like Cisco Systems (NasdaqNM:CSCO - news), the Nasdaq's most actively traded stock, was leading the market higher. The tech-packed Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) jumped 58.70 points, or 2.83 percent, to 2,134.38. Blue chips and the broader market were also lifted, although their gains were more modest. The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) rose 60.64 points, or 0.56 percent, to 10,870.69. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX) climbed 10.70 points, or 0.85 percent, to 1,263.75. The news was not all good. Discount retailer Dollar General Corp. (NYSE:DG - news) spun lower after saying it is investigating accounting irregularities and possible fraudulent behavior, and as a result its quarter results, annual report and annual meeting will be delayed. Dollar General slumped $7.63 to $16.25. Signs of slowing U.S. growth and its impact on Corporate America's bottom line have also not completely evaporated. Telecommunications software maker Comverse Technology Inc. (NasdaqNM:CMVT - news) said cut 6 percent of its staff because of the economic downturn. Comverse fell $3.63 to $66.48. But technology stocks were generally buoyant, benefiting from hopes held by some that that beaten-down sector will lead the economy out of its slump. Software maker Microsoft Corp. (NasdaqNM:MSFT - news) rose $1.31 to $68.43, while computer chip maker Intel Corp. (NasdaqNM:INTC - news) rose 77 cents to $30.95 -- both lifting the blue-chip Dow. Wall Street stocks blew higher on Friday, lifting the Dow into positive ground for the year after the government's preliminary estimate of first-quarter U.S. growth easily beat analysts' forecasts. ``People were happy on Friday with the number that came out,'' said James Volk, co-director of institutional trading at D.A. Davidson. ``People continue to figure that stocks are going to do better based on the perception that the economy has bottomed and is going to do better.'' The government reported U.S. personal income rose a surprisingly large 0.5 percent in March, while consumption rose 0.3 percent. Analysts had expected a 0.4 percent gain in income and a 0.2 percent gain in expenditures. A regional gauge of the manufacturing sector also strengthened. The Chicago Purchasing Management Index rose to 38.9 in April from 35.0 in March. Investors were looking ahead, however, to the National Association of Purchasing Management's key manufacturing sector survey on Tuesday. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic activity, grew in the first quarter at a 2 percent annual rate, way beyond analysts' consensus forecasts, boosted by upbeat consumer spending, the Commerce Department said on Friday. That means the world's largest economy grew for the 10th year in a row.>>

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (36460)	5/1/2001 11:07:26 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

Jim: Here's an article for you on the Gov't numbers... nypost.com Best Regards, Scott

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (36460)	5/2/2001 8:50:20 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

Fed: Economy Slow in March, Early April Wednesday May 2, 4:54 pm Eastern Time By Jonathan Nicholson <<WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve painted a mildly downbeat picture of the U.S. economy at the beginning of the second quarter of this year, noting slow growth and a steady weakening in manufacturing activity. ``Almost all districts report a slow pace of economic activity in March and early April,'' the Fed said on Wednesday in its periodic ``beige book'' summary of national economic activity, which will be used by U.S. central bankers when they meet to decide interest-rate policy on May 15. The report's somber tone is likely to reinforce expectations that on May 15 the Fed will reduce interest rates for a fifth time this year -- especially since it noted little or no price pressures and slacker conditions in the nation's formerly drum-tight labor markets. ``Industrial activity has continued to weaken, with orders and production having fallen in many districts,'' the Fed said. ''Labor market tightness has eased in almost every district.'' One worrisome sign was a pick-up in energy prices -- in some areas to historic highs -- that the Fed said was replacing its earlier worry over rising wage pressures. UNLIKELY TO SETTLE RATE DEBATE The U.S. central bank already has slashed short-term interest rates by a full two percentage points in four equal installments this year, seeking to spur the economy out of a slowdown that set in about mid-2000. But the mostly anecdotal beige book is unlikely to settle a lingering debate among analysts over whether the Fed will cut by a half-percentage point again, or a smaller quarter of a point. Some recent readings on the economy, including a report from the Commerce Department that showed 2 percent annual economic growth in first quarter, have been stronger than expected. ``Lots of reasons for rate cuts to date, not so clear about the future,'' said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist with High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y., in a research note. ``I think it does a lot for the 50 (basis points) side of the debate,'' said Paul Christopher, senior economist with A.G. Edwards & Sons in St. Louis. Christopher said the report's language left little doubt the central bank sees the economy as weak overall. Many analysts expect the April unemployment report, due out Friday morning, to be a key factor in the Fed's thinking at its next meeting. While the Fed has said it remains more worried about weakness in the economy than the prospect for inflation, the beige book report suggested some reason for concern about the impact of rising energy prices. The U.S. trucking industry was being hard hit by high gasoline prices and the Fed said that some industries ``are increasingly passing on these high costs to customers as fuel surcharges.'' It also noted hikes in electricity costs that it said were concerns in Philadelphia and especially in San Francisco. HOUSING, RETAIL SALES HOLDING UP Some industries were holding up well amid a generally weaker economic outlook at the start of the second quarter. In particular, the Fed noted that new home sales and construction ''have been picking up or steady,'' helped by cheaper interest rates that have benefited builders and buyers. The Fed said that retail sales strengthened in April from a weak March. One hopeful sign was that retailers in most districts said they were not overburdened with excess inventories. ``Still, retailers in most districts are expecting only small gains, at best, in upcoming months,'' the beige book said. But other industries continued to struggle. ``The high-tech and telecommunications industries are experiencing a pronounced slowdown,'' the Fed said, citing six of the 12 Fed regions as reporting declines in sales or new orders of computer equipment. That view was echoed by Robert Parry, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. In an appearance in Costa Mesa, Calif., Parry said it was ``probably correct'' that the boom in capital investment by businesses in recent years had created an excess of high-tech goods. Parry does not have a vote in interest rate decisions this year, following the usual voting rotation among Fed bank presidents.>>

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (36460)	5/3/2001 9:22:21 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

Jobless Claims Data Highest Since Oct '92 __________________________________________________ Thursday May 3, 8:54 am Eastern Time <<WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New U.S. unemployment applications jumped unexpectedly last week, while a longer-term barometer of labor trends shot to its highest since the United States was recovering from a brief recession in the early 1990s, a government report showed on Thursday. First-time jobless claims, which gives an early reading on the resilience of the labor market, rose 9,000 to 421,000 in the week ended April 28 from a revised 412,000 in the prior week, the Labor Department said. Private economists surveyed by Reuters had expected claims to drop to 400,000. The figure was at its highest since 428,000 in the week of March 23, 1996, when members of the United Auto Workers union went on strike against General Motors Corp. The closely watched four-week moving average for the April 28 week rose for the fifth straight week to 404,500 from 395,250 in the prior week, and its highest since 406,750 in the week of Oct.10, 1992. Economists consider the four-week moving average a more reliable indicator of job market trends because it irons out weekly fluctuations.>>

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (36460)	5/3/2001 2:28:20 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

Analysts: Job Cuts Won't Dampen Hopes Thursday May 3, 1:07 pm Eastern Time By Denise Duclaux <<NEW YORK (Reuters) - The steady downpour of job cuts is not likely to put a permanent damper on hopes for a stock market recovery, even though fresh news of layoffs sent investors running for cover on Thursday. ``The stock market telegraphs what lies ahead,'' said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at First Albany Corp. ``It's very true that employment conditions are very weak now, but the message of the stock market is that will all change when we get to the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter. Then employment conditions will strengthen.'' Indeed, the tech-rich Nasdaq composite index (.IXIC) staged its fifth best monthly performance ever in April as investors looked ahead to an economic recovery later this year after four deep interest-rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve. But investors paused Thursday after fresh news of mounting layoffs. In the latest sign that the labor market is softening, weekly first-time jobless claims climbed to 421,000 in the week ended April 28, surpassing Wall Street expectations and soaring to their highest since the week of March 23, 1996. Further signaling a softening labor market, job cuts announced by U.S. companies hit a record high in April -- the highest since the survey began in 1993 -- according to the international outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. ``The first thing to note is the level of employment is a lagging indicator, the first day that sales slow down businesses don't start firing people that day,'' said Neal Soss, chief U.S. economist at Credit Suisse First Boston. ``It takes a while for businesses to realize that something has changed on a more permanent basis and then they take action on their roster.'' Wall Street will be eyeing another set of job numbers on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters expect a report from the Labor Department to show a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4 percent from 4.3 percent and for U.S. payrolls to add just 5,000 jobs after the economy shed 86,000 jobs in March. ``I think we are due for a set of ugly employment numbers, but you have to remember that this is a rear-view mirror look of the economy and the stock market is looking forward,'' said Jay Mueller, an economist and portfolio manager at Strong Capital Management Inc. Mueller said the unemployment rate rose for 15 months after the nation's recession of 1991 ended. ``It's very reasonable to expect to see employment numbers continue to worsen even if we have bottomed,'' Mueller said. ''The labor market lags a lot of indicators. We could see these numbers get worse even after the broad market picks up.''>>

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (36460)	5/5/2001 10:10:29 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Consumers hanging tough __________________________________________________ By Rex Nutting, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 6:24 PM ET May 4, 2001 <<WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- If the equity markets loved that scary jobs report on Friday, they'll go bananas in the coming week over soft retail sales and the latest update on how many Americans are standing in the unemployment lines. The economic calendar in the coming week is full of the sort of numbers that only an economist could get excited about, like wholesale inventories, export prices and productivity. For investors, only two numbers will really matter: April's retail sales and the latest weekly jobless claims numbers. With the manufacturing sector in a recession due to the abrupt decline in capital spending by businesses, it's up to the consumer to keep the economy on track. "If consumer spending holds up, then production can resume at a pace consistent with moderate growth," said Josh Feinman, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Asset Management. "But the deterioration in the labor market is starting to worry me," Feinman said. If more workers lose their jobs, we'll see further cutbacks in demand and in production, a vicious feedback cycle that would keep the economy weak. So far, consumer spending, while slower than it was last year, has remained in positive territory. In the first quarter, consumer spending rose at a 3.1 percent annual pace, thanks to a shopping spree in January. But unfortunately, January is the only strong spending month we've seen since late summer. April probably won't break the trend of soft retail sales. Economists surveyed by CBS.MarketWatch.com are looking for sales to have increased just 0.1 percent. The figures will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Friday. See our complete calendar, consensus estimates and exclusive forecast from Chief Economist Irwin Kellner. The slump in auto sales is a big factor in the expected slow growth in retail sales. Automakers reported that April sales were down about 2.3 percent in April. Excluding auto sales, our consensus calls for an increase in retail sales of 0.3 percent. Many economists remain optimistic about consumer spending. "I was surprised there wasn't more of a give-back" in auto sales, said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Banc One. After an unsustainable pace last year, auto sales have retreated somewhat. But auto sales are at levels that automakers used to celebrate with champagne, Swonk said. Swonk remains upbeat about the economy, in large part because she believes consumers remain in a strong position. Even with job losses in March and April, wage growth is healthy. And the mortgage refinancings are giving consumers lots of extra cash, she said. The Federal Reserve has put a floor under consumer spending, said Wayne Ayers, chief economist at FleetBoston. "Spending is partly an issue of confidence and partly an issue of jobs," Ayers said. "The consumer knows the Fed has been aggressive," Ayers said. And they know tax cuts are coming later this year. Feinman said the other big number of the week will come at 8:30 a.m. Thursday when the Labor Department releases its weekly jobless claims numbers. The initial claims numbers have been trending higher, pushing past 400,000 consistently for the first time in nine years. "The steady run-up of claims has been telling the right tale," Feinman said. "Conditions are deteriorating." "It's starting to get ugly," Feinman said. Look for another 420,000 initial claims. The producer price index will also get some attention, but it's being released at the same time as the retail sales numbers: 8:30 on Friday. The Fed has said it doesn't see inflation as a serious threat right now, but the markets will be looking to see if energy prices are beginning to seep through into prices of other goods. The consensus estimate is for a gain of 0.3 percent in the PPI with a gain of 0.1 percent in the core rate excluding food and energy. Those levels wouldn't bother anybody. Swonk said we've already had the big hit from energy prices. "Are they going to get any worse than what we've seen?" she asked. The first-quarter productivity numbers will also get some ink at 8:30 a.m. on Tuesday. After growing at a 2.2 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter, productivity probably rose at a 1.1 percent pace in the first quarter, reflecting the cyclical slowdown.>> Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of CBS.MarketWatch.com.