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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (6699)4/29/2001 6:13:56 PM
From: Mark Fowler  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 57684
 
Bill I hope Yhoo has seen the worst, i'm hearing its one of the most popular websites to date. When do you thinkYhoo earnings should start to accelerate again? i'm thinking going into 2002., 4th qtr. and on.

You have anything to say about the new Ceo? I don't know much about him, but i plan to.



To: Bill Harmond who wrote (6699)4/29/2001 6:56:52 PM
From: Mark Fowler  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 57684
 
LARGE CAP
USD 46.22
VeriSign, Inc. (VRSN)
Solid First Quarter Results. Business Shows Signs of Reacceleration.

Summary

VeriSign reported better-than-expected first quarter results. Revenue for the
quarter was $213.4 million, slightly ahead of our $209 million estimate.

Fully taxed operating EPS was $0.14, a penny ahead of our estimate of $0.13.
The upside resulted from solid performance across all businesses.

The key takeways 1) deferred revenue grew 7% sequentially over the fourth
quarter - up significantly from Q4's rate 2) the renewal rate on domain names
appears to be tracking well above expectations - it is still early but so far
indications are promising 3) announced a $350 million stock buy back.

We are leaving our forward estimates unchanged. Long-term we still believe
VeriSign's leading positions at pivotal infrastructure points will provide a
wealth of growth opportunities.

While we are reiterating our Strong Buy we are reducing our price target to $
100 per share as a result of changes to our DCF. The stock currently trades
at 8 times 2001 earnings and 6 times 2002. Given the company's deferred
revenue model and visibility even in a tough macro climate we believe that
the company should trade at the high end of the software infrastructure group.

Price Mkt.Value 52-Week
4/26/011 Target Div. Yield (Billions) Price Range
USD 46.22 $100 - - $9.2 $214-26.25
Annual Prev. Abs. Rel. Revenue EV/
EPS EPS P/E P/E (MM) Revenue
12/02E $1.03 $1.03 - - $1,410.0 8.2X
12/01E 0.59 0.58 994.4 5.8
12/00A 0.36A 0.34E 474.8
March June Sept. Dec. FY End
2001E $0.14A $0.14 $0.15 $0.16 Dec. 31
2000A 0.02 0.08 0.11 0.13
1999A (0.02) (0.00) (0.01) (0.04)

ROIC -
Total Debt -
Book Value/Share (12/99) $1.35
WACC (3/00) 13.2%
Debt/Total Capital
Common Shares 210 mil.

1On 4/26/01 DJIA closed at 10,692.35 and Nasdaq at 2,034.88.
VeriSign, Inc. is a leading provider of digital certificate solutions and e-
commerce infrastructure needed by public and private enterprises and
individuals to conduct secure communications and commerce over Internet
Protocol (IP) networks. Its wholly owned subsidiary, Network Solutions, is
the registry of the largest domain names (e.g., .com, .net, .edu) and a
leading provider of registration services

Investment Summary

VeriSign reported a solid first quarter, which we believe will start to
remove some of the uncertainty from the stock. Deferred revenue accelerated
to 7% sequential growth (up from 3.5% in Q4) indicating that the worst may be
behind us. Additionally, the renewal rate on domain names (18 million are up
for renewal this year) is tracking well above management expectations. If
renewals continue to come in ahead of expectations VeriSign will easily
outperform our expectations. We believe that investors should be buying the
stock today given our belief that the metrics will continue to show
improvement over the course of the year and the domain names business appears
to have bottomed out and is starting to show normalized organic growth.
Additionally, the introduction of new gTLD's could potentially act as a positive
catalyst in the second half of the year.

We continue to be buyers of VeriSign for several reasons: 1)The deferred
revenue model offers investors excellent visibility even in a difficult macro
environment. 2) The company's competitive position continues to strengthen. 3)
The company's infrastructure will become increasingly valuable - the DNS
system is mission critical to the operation of the Internet. And 4) VeriSign
business will generate significant amounts of free cash flow as demonstrated
by the $70 million in cash from operations in the first quarter. Our DCF
value implies a stock price north of $100 today.

Let's recap why we continue to believe VeriSign should be a core technology
holding.

The company has clearly emerged as the dominant PKI (or authentication)
provider, and 2001 is shaping up to be the year of PKI deployment. All of the
metrics in this area of the business were positive, this sector is showing no
signs of a slowdown, and we believe that VeriSign's competitive dominance is
unquestioned.

Huge growth opportunities abound from VeriSign's essential role in the
Internet's infrastructure; ENUM and WebNUM are but two sizable examples. We
believe that several new business opportunities will emerge in the second
half of the year - gTLD's, wireless authentication, etc.

Where Do We See Uncertainty in the Near Future?

We believe that this quarter's results should go a long way toward resolving
uncertainty around the renewal of speculative months. April and May will have
significant speculative names up for renewal so we are not totally out of the
woods yet but early indications are positive.

The second area of uncertainty is quantifying and tracking the upsell
opportunity. On this front the company revealed some new metrics that offer
some encouragement. Revenue per unique customer was up from $70 in the fourth
quarter to $74 in the first quarter. Revenue per unique customer is probably
the best indication of the upsell execution. We do not have much history with
this metric so uncertainty still remains, but the metric moved in the right
direction this quarter..

What do we do with the stock? We continue to be buyers. The stock has had a
nice rally over the last few weeks, but we still view this company as a long-
term core holding. The competitive landscape is improving and we believe that
VeriSign's value proposition to customers (both enterprise and mass market)
continue to improve. VeriSign is emerging as an Internet infrastructure gorilla.

First Quarter Highlights from VeriSign's Businesses

Entrprise/Service Provider Segment - 36% of revenues-

The Enterprise and Service Provider Division of VeriSign's business includes
Enterprise PKI, the Global Affiliate Network, B2B Payments, Corporate Domain
Name Services, and the emerging Wireless Services group. In total the
Enterprise/Service Provider division contributed $76.7 million to VeriSign's
total revenue.

PKI - Despite the weakness that other PKI vendors have experienced in this
difficult macro-economic environment, VeriSign continued to see strength in
new order rates, renewal rates, and sales pipeline growth. Management
believes that the company's relative strength is due to businesses finding
its infrastructure rather than enterprise software approach more attractive
and an easier solution for provisioning their PKI solutions. VeriSign's
solution moves complexity away from the customer and into the infrastructure.
VeriSign's server-based model allows customers to pay only for what they need
at a given time. The company continues to gain market share, in the first
quarter customer adds included Ernst & Young, Co-America Bank, the Nuclear
Regulatory Commission, and Deposit Trust Corp.

International Affiliates - VeriSign continues to see solid traction with its
international affiliates program. In the first quarter two new affiliates
were added in Asia, bringing the world-wide total to 37. The company expects
to add two to three additional affiliates in the second quarter, and believes
that two to three of the current affiliates will expand to include payment
services. The company has received requests from several of the larger
affiliates to expand into additional territories or globally. In the first
quarter VeriSign also announced that it had increased its stake in VeriSign
Japan to 68% ownership.

CREDIT SUISSE FIRST BOSTON CORPORATION
Equity Research
Americas



To: Bill Harmond who wrote (6699)4/29/2001 8:41:35 PM
From: tbigb  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 57684
 
They have 1.2 Billion in cash reserves and can afford it. Their monopoly (the registry business) sure helps.