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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mani1 who wrote (37938)	5/1/2001 2:04:42 AM
From: bacchus_ii	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

I think that going short AMD may get you more money than going short Intel. But it's against my RELIGION to bet on a bearish AMD trade, so I had to go on bearish INTC trade. Gottfried (AMDroid to the death) PS Oh father Jerry, forgive this infidel.

To: Mani1 who wrote (37938)	5/1/2001 2:51:40 AM
From: Petz	Respond to of 275872

I say, AMD $25, Intel $21. /Petz

To: Mani1 who wrote (37938)	5/1/2001 3:30:02 AM
From: Petz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Just curious, what motherboard did you get? /Petz

To: Mani1 who wrote (37938)	5/1/2001 4:18:27 AM
From: kapkan4u	Respond to of 275872

<I hope you guys are not mad> I am all for equal opportunity investing. Just be careful. I discovered that being right is not enough to make money on shorts. You have to be right at the right time. At the end of 1999 I shorted Yahoo at $150, but it kept going up and I had to cover, regardless how ridiculous I thought the valuation was. It is hard to make money from shorting, because of the fear that time is working against you. Kap

To: Mani1 who wrote (37938)	5/1/2001 8:07:15 AM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Mani: "Today I went short AMD at $31.25. First time I have been short AMD." A word of caution...Technically, AMD, by closing above $30, has broken out on the upside, which usually signals a fairly strong move to the next resistance level somewhere in the $36 range...There is a gap between $30 and $30.75 that may get filled, but any bounce off $30 will signal that the next upleg has begun... If market action was coincidental with fundamentals, AMD'd never have gotten below $40, and INTC'd be trading below $20 right now...Both, at the moment seem to be trading based upon very positive 6 month out scenarios!!! Good luck, but surely there are 100's of better shorts out there than AMD...After all, AMD is making money in this market, gaining market share and if palomino, which could be introduced any day now, lives up to its billing, AMD could get to $36 in the blink of an eye!!!

To: Mani1 who wrote (37938)	5/1/2001 10:13:47 AM
From: xun	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Mani, <I hope you guys are not mad...> Not at all. I would like to see a healthy AMD bull/bear ratio. Good luck anyway. I am still long and strong on AMD, but with somewhat different reasons from last year or year before. AMD has patially realized its potential as promised 1-2 years ago. I would argue that the Street also sees AMD differently now. AMD has achieved 6 consecutive quarterly earnings. AMD has survived the Intel carnage and "is reasonably uncrushable", given the competitive product lineup as well as process technologies. IMHO, today's price may be ahead of itself a little bit, but AMD stock still has room for P/E expansion, for different reasons from last year. I expect AMD to hit $50 at least once in the remaining of the year. The price war is real, but the price war spin is yet another tool for big guys to accumulate before the next round of bull market, IMHO. panic

To: Mani1 who wrote (37938)	5/1/2001 11:20:58 AM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Mani, Good luck. Just remember to have some protection. I bought May 35 calls for cover at same time as shorting. Depending on your horizon you might try July. I think Q2 numbers will be awfull. And once Q3 visibility comes out the PC market will suck big time. regards, Kash

To: Mani1 who wrote (37938)	5/1/2001 6:00:45 PM
From: DRBES	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

<FONT COLOR=RED>MANI! ARE YOU COMPLETELY NUTS???? The very real upside potential on AMD common in the next 6 to 18 months is $150/share. The downside is, of course zero. Only a few of the real possibilities that AMD will be exploiting need work out in order for it to start an astonishing ascent. inteL, on the other hand (and I can employ more than two hands if this discourse needs it) is embarking on a journey that, in all likelihood, will spread iTs already thin management team so much that stumbles are a near certainty. BTW, I would not short inteL either. However, given the circumstances as I see them now, I would short inteL long before I would do so with AMD shares. Just my notso humble opinion. Patient Regards, DARBES

To: Mani1 who wrote (37938)	5/1/2001 6:05:40 PM
From: DRBES	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

re: "I hope you guys are not mad," Certainly not, I am compassionately sad, however. Patient Regards, DARBES

To: Mani1 who wrote (37938)	5/1/2001 7:10:24 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

RE:"Just a quick disclaimer. Today I went short AMD at $31.25. First time I have been short AMD." You are fighting the FED. Not wise. Jim

To: Mani1 who wrote (37938)	5/1/2001 8:51:11 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Mani, All, This is another reason why you don't want to short AMD. quote.bloomberg.com T=marketsquote99_news.ht&s=AOu9SjhNvVU1DIHRv Anyone read Chinese? ctech.com.tw AMD can't make enough chips to supply demand. UMC to Make Processors for Advanced Micro, Web Site Says By Alan Patterson Taipei, May 2 (Bloomberg) -- United Microelectronics Corp., the second-largest chipmaker on a contract basis, said it will make processors for Advanced Micro Devices Inc., which has more orders than it is able to meet with its own chip factories, the CTech Web site reported, citing UMC President Peter Chang. AMD, the second-largest processor maker after Intel Corp., has increased its share of the market to about 18 percent and has given UMC one of its first contracts to make these high-margin chips that perform most of the computing functions in a personal computer, according to the Web site operated by Taiwan's largest newspaper. UMC has also received a contract from Vitesse Semiconductor Corp. to make digital signal processors, which are used to perform the main functions of mobile phones and other consumer electronic products, the report said. UMC said at its first-quarter earnings announcement on April 30 that it will make processors for Sun Microsystems Inc., one of the largest makers of servers, or computers that manage corporate networks and Web sites. (CTech 05/02) To view the Web site report, see ctech.com.tw

To: Mani1 who wrote (37938)	5/2/2001 9:07:10 AM
From: DRBES	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 275872

<FONT COLOR=RED>re: MANI! ARE YOU COMPLETELY NUTS???? Please do excuse my midwestern influenced, understated manner of expressing that which my true feelings should openly indicate. I feel much more strongly than the above and repeated declaration may imply. The issue is not whether AMD shares will decline, possibly sharply and in the short term. The shares probably will. What worries me, for your sake, is the enormous and time wise unpredictable upside that is extremely obvious to me (I may very well be wrong in my timing...I have a long history of displaying extraordinarily poor short term timing). The market evaluation of the shares, in my estimation, in no way properly discounts that which AMD has immediately and in the mid term obviously coming down the technology pike. ALL of it is is in the public domain but is not yet adequately discounted in the current stock price. None of ANALysts is prepared yet to reflect, in their publications, that which their real expectations are (However they do want to keep their ill deserved and extremely well paying jobs.). There are some very telling inconsistencies that strongly imply the real disparities that differentiate that which they are publishing (in writing) and that which they are verbally transmitting to their clients. Having been one of them, a very long time ago, let me convey to you what must be taken to be a riddle with a very obvious answer (at least to me.) For several of them (the ANALysts) despite the fact that AMD is now closing rapidly on its 12 month price objectives for the stocks performance they are yet to downgrade the stock (though some of them have.) This movement should result in very prompt downgrades. The most myopic of them probably are conveying such to their preferred clients. There is reason, in the public domain to suspect that, at least, several are not. This is all happening while AMD is penetrating that which should, in my view, be historic and abundant overhead supply. In my mind the key to this riddle is exteremely obvious and simple and in the public domain. The mobile Palomino has been shipping to major OEMs on schedule and in possibly vastly increasing numbers. Why is it not yet introduced? AMD, though right on schedule, has no motivation to pressure the down stream suppliers to launch the end products any sooner than a perfect launch is possible. Infrastructure and final shake down issues are in all probability being addressed. The final end product is, in my view, a generation to a generation and a half ahead of the peEweEiiI mobilE fiasco. Hence, there is no impetus for any premature "paper" launch. AMD can take all of the time it wants and still be assured of an enormous market position advantage. This market advantage should, in my view, translate into a very rapid increase in AMDs ASPs and devastation to inteLs mobile marketing effots of a much more primitive offering. So far inteLs premature launch has served mainly to wet the publics appitite for a product that iT cannot supply in adequate numbers and AMD is emerging in cofident readiness for. Just my notso humble opinion. Patient Regards, DARBES

To: Mani1 who wrote (37938)	6/27/2001 1:03:11 PM
From: Mani1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Re <<Just a quick disclaimer. Today I went short AMD at $31.25. First time I have been short AMD.>> Well, I am done. Not a big gain, but I take it. I know something for sure, being short really tests one's patience. Of course I have no clue what happens in couple of hours or where AMD is headed, just protecting some of my profits. Both AMD and Intel are facing serious issues in the CPU market, even if PC's rebound late this year or next. Still, if AMD drops or fundamentals improve somewhat, I will be going long AMD again. Mani