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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigBull who wrote (90556)	5/2/2001 8:12:50 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

"It's Leading indicators, not lagging indicators - stupid" I continually got "poo-poo'd" here on SI and on Yahoo over the last month when I continually pounded the table that the API supply trend was disturbing and was the one caveat; to this great window of opportunity for another Oilpatch rally leg thru resistance & to new highs. The API's WERE and ARE - THE lead indicator that a significant number of Institutional Investors will use as a final exit signal to this Oilpatch cycle. I also think that the Perma-Bulls are significantly under-estimating the impact of a slowing US economy & the impact that slowing demand will have on Crude Oil & Nat Gas price dynamics. We now clearly have BOTH - slowing demand AND rising supplies & THAT is NOT what new highs in the OSX are made of... and by the way; THAT is exactly how the last Oilpatch cycle ended...and what do they say about history again (VBG) ? ... learn from it, or be destined to repeat it... repeat it; as in "Deja Vu - all over again"... Hope you all grabbed a few shorts today for a swing trade.. maybe even a few leap puts - ie: Short one for the Tommy-boy... PS: XAU still over 56... amazing, simply amazing ~ I still need to be convinced that the US economy is going to continue to surprise to the downside & I still need to be convinced that there is value in tech... I don't see it & I don't think we've seen the bottom... California the Worlds 6th Largest Economy is a wreck... Greepump has seen the ghost & these layoffs haven't even begun to hit consumer sentiment yet... it ALLWAYS takes a while for "fear" to arrive next door, or on Main St... it will. See those NAPM stats today Bullsky ? ... that young Money Manager on CNBC this am gets it... & it's the "pressure" on Money Mgrs to NOT miss this rally with YOUR - "OPM" money that caused it, not the fundamentals... and Fed Cuts can't cure what ails this market imo... not in the near-midterm anyway... Tic-toc.... don't see ANYTHING near the positive risk vs reward opps that gold/silver offeres here... nothing even close... Got Oil Shorts ? ... whodathukit ?

To: BigBull who wrote (90556)	5/3/2001 4:50:08 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Updated DOE charts: Crude and aggregates: eia.doe.gov Gasoline: eia.doe.gov Distillates: eia.doe.gov Imports: eia.doe.gov There is NO current crude supply problem - NONE! The next two weeks may even bring crude near to the top end of the range at 340. With Euroland economies now demonstrably slowing along with Asia and The US, I expect the current product problems to be alleviated quickly through a combination of imports and the resumption of refining activity. The period in time for the end of crude stock builds is approx 2 weeks away. If this is violated, there will be big trouble in little Italy for the oil patch. At any rate, there will be nothing but bad news coming in total aggregate stocks for MONTHS. The cure for high prices, is high prices and there ain't no "new energy paradigm" it's still the same old cyclical business it always was.