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To: BirdDog who wrote (42333)	5/2/2001 3:12:16 PM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

The question is important in general but specifically now, it seems not yet relevant. The recent quarter was 15 cents, no analysts estimate but reality. So the current P/E is about 76. The growth rate? We can't use the 100% figure of the first quarter because Siebel told us that it will drop from that. Somebody at the company, maybe it was Siebel himself, mentioned 25% as a likely number. If we use that then the PE/G ratio is about three. So it's early to invoke the PEG five rule of MIke's. (My own metric pushed me out now; that's another not so important matter.) Just incidentally, I really question whether we can see accurately that the present growth rate, whatever it may be, will or won't increase. It seems that when a stock is at an all time high there is a general consensus that this is only the beginning --- next year will accelerate.

To: BirdDog who wrote (42333)	5/2/2001 3:23:55 PM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

I responded to your post without having read Mike Buckley's post to which you were replying. It seems there is a confusion about nomenclature here. Mike Buckley was talking about the fool ratio. You used the term PEG which I assume is PE/growth rate. I'm not sure what the fool ratio is but I'm sure that PEG and the fool ratio are different. Mike once said that he would sell SEBL at a PEG ratio of five.

To: BirdDog who wrote (42333)	5/2/2001 4:03:24 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 54805

Bird Dog, You're exactly right that when running PEG ratios, we have to put the results in context. That's the subjective aspect. That's why investing is all about subjectivity. One small correction that probably involves your use of the keyboard more than substance: Fact Two) The p/e is due mainly to analyst's estimates. You probably meant to either write "p/e/g" or "forward p/e." A reference to "p/e" usually implies the use of historical earnings only, not estimated earnings. --Mike Buckley