Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (6894)	5/3/2001 8:10:15 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Justa, >>>> But I think you recently said you are 75% in cash and 2:1 long on the remainder which suggests you are about 8% long net. <<<< Im a bit embarrassed. After seeing your note I went and rechecked my distribution and actually I was closer to 3.2:1 long before yesterday. As of yesterday's close my mutual fund account is now approximately 3:2 net long. Frankly, I thought I was really only slightly net long, just a few percentage points above even. As for my cash position Im now 84% cash. Yes, I started becoming less bearish(short/mid-term(30 days) when the RUT started breaking out. My strategy is to start adding longs gradually when my short-term technicals get back to the midrange, and if the NDX continues down I will continue to add in small amounts and if I do get a CLASS 1 BUY signal I will add significantly. Im guessing that a midrange reading in the NDX may come with about a 100-150 point decline. I feel that a retest of the lows is less likely right now. However, I still remain bearish further out. In no way am Im sure, but I would not at all be surprised if the market goes higher than most expect(IE: NDX 2500-3000+). On the bearish side, the higher this market goes, especially if it continues up at/similar to the recent pace, the more I feel that eventually there will be another corrective phase, which could retest the lows or even set lower lows. Fundamentally, I dont like what is happening in Asia and feel that a weak Asia will continue to pull down a weakened U.S. economy, as I have mentioned previously. I have received PMs inquiring as to why Im bullish now, in light of being bearish longer-term and the best way to explain it is that I dont use fundamentals to time the market, just the technicals. Eventually if we do not see improvements in the economy the fundamentals will justify another corrective phase - but again, I dont use fundamentals to time the market.