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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (42356)	5/3/2001 9:00:07 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike, Where would one find these words? "Common yardsticks such as dividend yield, the ratio of price to earnings or to book value, and even growth rates have nothing to do with valuation except to the extent they provide clues to the amount and timing of cash flows into and from the business." Interesting thoughts to contemplate. BB P.S. They come from the 2000 Berkshire annual report letter...

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (42356)	5/3/2001 10:07:12 AM
From: substancep	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike, Isn't the 4.95 SEBL PEG for the next 7 quarters misleading if ERM revenues are not factored into the equation? P

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (42356)	5/3/2001 12:32:07 PM
From: William	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

>>The Fool Ratio is actually the classic, unaltered PEG ratio. I'll break it down using Siebel's numbers as an example. 1) Siebel's trailing EPS is now $.60, not $.54. Using a stock price of $48.00, the PE is 80 (48/.54 = 80).<< Now wait a minute. How come if the EPS is $0.60 and not $0.54 that you then use .54 to calculate the PE. But then you calculate the PE wrong, 48/.54 is 88.8. That just doesn't make sense. No wonder I don't Fool with that stuff. (And that's just 1). Wonder what the rest of the post contains.) William

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (42356)	5/3/2001 10:06:11 PM
From: DaYooper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Good valuation discussion on sebl Mike, thanks. All agreed that earnings growth is the crux of the issue. I will certainly not attempt to bs you into believing that I have any ability or expertise at projecting the future earnings growth so let me just share my humble thoughts. SEBL grew fiscal '01 earnings 73 percent over fiscal '00 earnings. And SEBL is further dominating and growing market share in it's core space, CRM, which is still experiencing furious growth itself. SEBL is expanding into new applications with a "foot in the door" and a top notch sales team accustomed to scoring wins. SEBL has created a new application product, ERM, much as they invented CRM but now with tremendous amount of successful experience in the process. This product has the ability to spawn a brand new tornado with a force equal to or greater than CRM. The history is impressive as are Tom's future goals. I believe the management team has the mindset and know-how to make it happen and they have built a team that can and will execute their strategy. So why are the analysts of a different mind and forecasting greatly slowed growth from SEBL's own recent history? I have no idea. Yes I realize it gets harder to grow after you have gotten bigger. But I think they have underestimated the power of a gorilla in a space, applications software, that will continue to grow exponentially because companies are realizing it more than pays for it's own cost in savings. I don't recall if this was posted on the SEBL thread but it pretty well sums it up: aol.thestreet.com If that fiscal '02 estimate of .78 turns out accurate then we would be in some trouble at this price. The good news is that the analysts have routinely been way low with their estimates, as they always are during a tornado, and I think and hope that will continue for some time yet. Seeya, Rory p.s. Keep up the great work Mike. Sorry if I'm unable to keep up an in depth exchange but still working for a living.