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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (46162)	5/3/2001 4:21:58 PM
From: Tony Viola	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

I disagree. He doesn't have exact information on inventory overhangs and up to date turns business. Those are only known by the semiconductor companies. Novellus giving exact numbers on the chip industry, like factory utilization at the chip houses, would be like Intel giving figures on PCs sold, which they don't. Novellus CEO is just pulling a bunch of other companies down with them, the old drowning man thing. Semiconductor equipment maker Novellus Systems Inc. (NasdaqNM:NVLS - news) does not expect a recovery in orders for semiconductors until the fourth quarter of this year at best, Chief Executive Richard Hill said on Thursday. He should just speak for his own orders, not his customers' orders.

To: Math Junkie who wrote (46162)	5/3/2001 4:56:39 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

The CEO's do the best they can, but they are often very, very wrong. How can he tell if he is losing market share vs just a slowing in orders? I've worked in the semi industry and know that they can't tell if they have true orders or triple bookings until the demand crests and you observe order cancellations. Also, until that inventory is worked out of the system, you really don't know the future demand picture. I also like Bagley of LRCX a great deal but I also remember him telling us a year ago that DRAM would be in short supply by Dec. 2000. He was so wrong it would be funny if I didn't own so much semicapx stock. Like everything, I appreciate their opinonis, but I take them with a grain of salt (a 1 ton grain). My GUESS is those companies sellig the more advanced processes (technology upgrades vs capacity upgrades) are doing much better than those selling more capacity. This might explain the changes in relative valuations. Kirk out