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To: Jack of All Trades who wrote (99399)	5/3/2001 4:56:33 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 436258

lumber has had a decent rally though, presumably because the timber producers have cut back drastically (i.e. it's more of a supply than a demand issue). for reasons mentioned previously, i think that housing won't hold up much longer. anecdotal as well as concrete evidence is piling up that a downturn in RE generally has already begun. we'll see if it accelerates at the same rate as the tech downturn did. many mainstream economists point to the refi boom as a sign of health in the RE sector, as well as a sign of continued strong consumer spending. i disagree with that...rather i believe it's Ponzi finance at work, as more and more equity is extracted from homes, while simultaneously credit card debt continues to explode. consumers trying to weather the storm by taking on new debt is my guess...the shrinking trade deficit is a strong hint that the refi boom had a lot to do with financing soaring recurring expenditures.