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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dale_laroy who wrote (38487)	5/7/2001 4:03:50 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

<Won't happen. > Yeah? What makes you so confident? <..it may even be that AMD will introduce a 1.0 GHz Spitfire instead if the Morgan die is indeed larger than the Spitfire die.> Is there any data (or good rumors) that suggest this? Unless AMD is incredibly dumb, the odds are Morgan will not be significantly bigger than Spitfire. And even if it is, AMD is awash in capacity at Fab25 so there probably are not any good reasons to not ramp Morgan. <I think it would be a good idea for AMD to offer a 1.2 GHz Duron versus Intel's 1133 MHz Coppermine, but wouldn't expect it any earlier than late November of this year.> That would be consistent with AMD track record of demonstrating a total lack of killer instinct. <Without Northwood, Intel may continue to offer the 1.4 GHz P4 throughout H2 2001.> If so, that would be entirely for marketing reasons. <>That should push P3/Celeron ASPs to well below $100 and Intel wouldn't be able to push P4 prices too low.< Not likely. Intel's strategy is to flood the consumer market with low margin P4 processors while keeping margins high on P3, which sells better in the corporate market. Unless, corporate America embraces Duron/Athlon, Intel will probably do quite well with this strategy.> Segmentation helps but does not stop the ASP drop. If you look at current P3/Celeron pricing and do some calculations, it should become pretty clear that Intel's P3/Celeron desktop ASPs are probably in the very low $100 region. If Duron is at 1100 or 1200MHz next quarter and at a customary $99 AMD level, I do not see any way in which Intel can have greater than $100 ASPs for P3s/Celerons. The only real question is how far below $100 would it be. May be you can share your though process on why that would not be the case. <With the exception of the greater than 1.0 GHz Duron in Q3, and Celeron/P3 ASPs, I think there is a pretty good potential of the market being roughly what you outlined. > Duron penetration so far is pathetic. AMD needs to do whatever it can to kick start it. Duron crossing 1GHz mark ASAP is one very good way AMD can help Duron sales and increase Fab25 utilization.