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To: UnBelievable who wrote (100343)	5/7/2001 7:36:53 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

it's already happening in some areas of the economy. there's a dude on kitco who does a private survey using a basket of 30 everyday items in Texas department stores, and according to him there's a virulent inflation outbreak, disguised by little tricks like downsizing packages. likewise it is clear that energy in all its forms, insurance and medical care costs, as well as employment costs are on a steep upward trajectory. considering the constant low balling of these trends by BLS, what they DO admit to is frightening enough. however, i still think that the larger secular trend is towards deflation...i don't see how the vast private sector debt load can lead to any other outcome. there's a difference between fiscal deficits and private sector deficits in this regard: the government can always wait for inflation to take care of its indebtedness, as it is unlikely to default on its obligations before the effects of inflation are felt. most private debtors don't have this luxury. furthermore, rising prices in the recurrent expenditures category lead to a reduction in demand for the goods produced by industries that are already suffering from vast overcapacities. it is easy to see how this combination could eventually lead to a deflationary spiral, in spite of all the printing that takes place currently. of course one has to keep an open mind about all this...i realize that the stagflation arguments are gaining currency so to speak by way of more and more evidence, anecdotal and otherwise. there have been periods in history when deflation and inflation co-existed across national boundaries, sometimes in extremes. perhaps this time the boundaries will be defined differently, with inflation continuing to persist in the sectors where it is already showing up, and the same holding true for deflation.