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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Broken_Clock who wrote (68874)	5/8/2001 5:54:15 PM
From: gold$10k	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116756

Papaya King, thanks for the heads up on the dollar. A buying opportunity would be welcome, but I'm not counting on it... too many other positives. In the book "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" by Edwin LeFevre, the main character (supposed to be Jesse Livermore) talks about how in a bull market "I often took profits and waited for a reaction that never came". I don't know if this is a bull market or not, but after waiting this long for it, I want to be pretty sure of a retracement before I get too far out of the sector. vt

To: Broken_Clock who wrote (68874)	5/8/2001 6:32:23 PM
From: Claude Cormier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116756

Before gold goes to $350, I think we will retest those lows and possibly touch $250. Then later this summer, the major rally will start.

To: Broken_Clock who wrote (68874)	5/8/2001 10:12:49 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 116756

Papaya: My take is quite different. You focus on the strong dollar. But to me the crucial thing is the good performance of the gold stocks in the face of a strong dollar and soft POG. The news really does not matter. Reaction to news is what counts. And the ability of gold stocks to shrug off bad news day after day tells me they are going much higher regardless of the inevitable jiggles along the way.

To: Broken_Clock who wrote (68874)	5/9/2001 9:25:56 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116756

The US dollar in general will be the key fundamental factor. But in the short run I'm focused more on the strength in the Aussie dollar and implied volatility (IP)(see red line on chart): mrci.com My reasoning relates to the structure of the short gold market and the extreme vulnerability of Aussie producers who are heavily short their own currency, and who utilize close to the money call writes (the delta) as hedging strategies. It won't take much of a move in POG, IP, and the Aussie to put these significant players in a world of hurt. I'm still predicting that will be a major (and now overlooked)story of the early stages of any gold bull move.