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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (76680)5/9/2001 8:24:23 AM
From: John  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 99985
 
There is much speculation in the media that gasoline prices will increase to near 3 dollars per gallon this summer in the U.S.. Also, there seems to be increasing concern that the energy crisis in California will worsen and spread elsewhere across the country, and that the potential for inflation will limit the FOMC's rate cutting options going forward.

I wonder if the value of NASDAQ 100 stocks have already discounted all of this. One school of thought is that technology is immune to higher fuel prices and the like, but I'm having some trouble believing that at this point. If people and businesses are paying 3 dollars per gallon for fuel, I can't see them rushing to upgrade their computers or software. Priorities in life will become somewhat clearer to many when it becomes increasingly expensive to get from point A to point B. Many will say, "yeah, a new computer with a Pentium 4, Windows XP, and Office XP would be nice, but I don't actually NEED it right now." After all, what is so special about any of that? Really, how much better will your life become if you have a Pentium 4 instead of a Pentium 3, or Office XP instead of Office 97 or 2000?

Any thoughts, Haim or others, on whether the prices of technology stocks accurately reflect the anticipated conditions going forward, or are we still betting the FOMC rate cuts will prove history right and save the day eventually (like later this year)?

Ciao,
John in Iceland
(Unleaded fuel in Reykjavik is over 4 dollars per LITRE!)