Alzheimers scares the hell out of me so I'm going to make the most optimistic case for the economy [and express it in the happiest of happy talk] that I can, while maintaining a [fragile] grip on rationality.
The US is 'too big to fail'. Whatever else you want to say about this joint, I think the case can be made that the globe needs a reserve currency, a bank of last resort, and a cop of last resort. Put your arrows back in your quivers, flamers--nobody needs to remind me that this makes us a gigantic pain in the ass to a very large percent of the world's population a very large portion of the time. And we largely deserve it, given that we may be the most inept foreign policy dolts on the planet. Fortunately, we make up for our naivete with a fair amount of idealism, and will frequently blunder into doing the right thing despite ourselves. Not to mention that no other candidate springs readily to mind: the French are too smart and piss everybody off, the Germans scare the hell out of the rest of Europe, and the Brits are so damn busy with their cattle these days that they hardly have the time. Slithering on down the pole, that leaves Iran, Iraq, Uganda, and whatever passes for Russia these days. Let's hear a chorus of the Star Spangled Banner, shall we?
The US has turned materialism into an art form and taken capitalism to a level commensurate with its insatiable lust for "more". I am penning these words of wisdom from all-too-sunny California where I am anticipating the loss of our electrical supply at any nanosecond. The person to whom I look for a paycheck has suggested, none too subtly I might add, that I may look elsewhere for said filthy lucre in the event that our data center goes too-da-loo. A veritable truckload of battery back-ups is winging its way to us for immediate installation on arrival. However, a trace uncovered a snafu in the logistical chain, such that we were due for delivery 'sometime next week'. I called the shipper, who called the carrier, who called me. The spokesperson was a) mentally challenged, b) uninformed, and c) ducking responsibility like a mad dog. I escalated, warned the shipper that a reasonably large customer was about to go south, the shipper ponied up extra bucks out of its own pocket to upgrade the delivery, and the crap will be here tomorrow, one day AHEAD of schedule. Let's face it friends, this place flat works. You think America is inefficient? It is--except for all the alternatives, to borrow from Mr. Churchill.
The US embraces change and innovation, shrugs off failure with a 'jolly nice try, care to give it another go?', and doesn't give a tinker's damn about yesterday. While this may provide us with the cultural depth of a shopping mall, it is one hell of a recipe for the immediate implementation of new technology and business methods. So we had a little "Sector Bubble", blew up a few hundred billion in venture capital, and are now closing dot.coms faster than we started them. So what? We'll be on Chapter Two while the rest of the world is still trying to figure out what a hyperlink is. Innovate baby, just innovate.
Let us admit that the Big Dog has a sore paw just now, but let us not be blinded to the fact that he is still the Big Dog. Our allies are doubtless a bit queasy with 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue occupied by a guy who seems to feel that he knows God's plan for this Earth even if the rest of mankind doesn't. That the Leader of The Free World struggled to achieve Gentleman's C's from the college of his father and grandfather (from the both of whom it secured charitable grants in the bazillions) is in fact troublesome. Dubya appears to know his limits however and has insulated himself with half of Stanford's Hoover Institute as advisors/cabinent members so the overall IQ level is quite respectable. George ain't the sharpest tool in the shed, but he's not Hoover for heaven sakes.
We don't have time for a real Depression. Those things take YEARS, and nothing occupies us for more than a few months, max. The Golden State is out of power, the environmentalists have all but guaranteed that we're not going to build a generation plant in this or any other century, so we're screwed forever, right? Nah, Arizona and Nevada exported all their tree huggers [they don't have any trees anyway] and are even now building generators like hell won't have it. They'll sell their juice to their weird California neighbors who will pay the price for not having "one" in their backyard, but who will have power nevertheless. A classic win-win. Besides, we have to have the juice flowing in time for the football season, and the retailers can't take two back-to-back lousy Christmas selling seasons so I figure we'll be seeing the light at the end of this tunnel by Q4--NBC, CBS, Fox, and ABC damn near guarantee it.
There you go, fellow thread mates, it's [almost] time to party like a rock star. I feel years younger and almost Alzheimers resistant already. Jay just sent me a PM and is selling his beloved platinum to try and beat this post before the word gets out and the precious metals crash. Amazon announced that all their debt has been forgiven in exchange for 7.5% of the equity, EBAY is making money like the auction machine it is, and Yahoo is charging just to log on to their portal [no takers yet, but you gotta admit it's the death knell for pricing product/services at zero and making it up on volume].
In closing, I would like to apologize in advance for taking a few tiny liberties with the factual situation, but it was done with the best of intentions. The truth is I'm as gloomy as I've ever been about the near term outlook, but shorting the USA is probably about as close to a guaranteed losing strategy longer term as any I can imagine. This economy is the Energizer Bunny on steroids, and forecasts of its imminent demise are as premature as Mark Twain's famous obituary.
You want sick? How about the mid to late 80's when the Japanese turned our once mighty steel mills and the symbol of the US Economy itself, General Motors, not to mention the rest of Detroit, into rusting ghost towns? When our Savings and Loans vaporized billions in capital and the urban and suburban landscapes were littered with empty real estate from Sea to Shining Sea? Toss in a few vigorous urban riots, an earthquake or two, and tell me 2001 looks so terrible.
So we have a few thousand miles of unlit fiberoptic cable, and Cisco's got a couple of dozen warehouses with enough routers, hubs, and bridges to bring gigabit internet access to every moonlighting still in Appalachia + we could toss in a cell phone for the dogs, this picture, ladies and gentlemen, ain't all that bad. In fact, if Dubya and Jaimin would just shack up at the Lone Star Saloon and knock back a six pack or two until they both giggle and start telling lousy jokes to each other, I could get almost giddy. But that will wait for another day. kind regards, mike doyle |
