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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wl9839 who wrote (22293)	5/9/2001 9:19:29 PM
From: wl9839	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

Energy crisis to retard Brazilian economic progress São Paulo, 09 - The rationing of electric energy to be introduced next month is seen as likely to slow the Brazilian economy in the current year and jeopardize targets for the next, a report in business daily Valor Econômico said Wednesday. A survey of banks and consultants conducted by the newspaper has predicted the country´s gross domestic product (GDP) may contract between 0.3 of a point to 2.1 of a point by yearend as power cuts are put in place. Edmar Bacha, an economist with BBA bank, has trimmed his growth forecast for Brazil from 4.4% to 4.1% in 2001 and from 4.5% to 4% in 2002. Bacha gauged the impact of a 20% drop in energy supplies to draw new conclusions. To Rosenberg e Associados consultants, a 10% electricity shortage in the second half would represent a fall from 4.2% to 2.1% in the expansion of Brazil´s GDP, according to what they told Valor Econômico. As reported by AE-Brazil, Getúlio Vargas Foundation, a think tank, on Tuesday said the power shortage would cause Brazil´s GDP to retreat by 1.5 of a point in 2001, with a R$ 15 billion loss in goods and services. According to the foundation´s study of the impact of the energy rationing on the local economy, 800,000 people would lose their jobs if cuts reached 5% to 25% of total electric energy supplies over the next 6 months. The government has yet to disclose details of a planned electricity rationing plan that is expected to last from June 1 until November, when the rains normally return to replenish thirty water reservoirs in Brazil. Scarce rainfall has severely lowered reservoir levels, particularly in the southeast of the country. Brazil is largely dependent on hydroelectric power and shortages will affect industry, commerce and households alike. Ana Mano