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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boplicity who wrote (76812)	5/10/2001 9:51:53 PM
From: bobby beara	Respond to of 99985

that was good one, you could tell it was happening, the bears were so full of themselves they were composing songs, dreaming about driving down freeways with no cars on them. LOL>>>> extreme opinion should be expected at market turns. dood, all of us have gotten caught in crowd behavior at market turns at one time or another, i remember you saying the bears were in denial going into the late jan fed meeting -g- this thread is about market direction, and is not defined by a time frame, bullish or bearish,vst, st, it, lt. not about some bullish or bearish religion, there are threads that cater to this, not here.

To: Boplicity who wrote (76812)	5/10/2001 10:05:09 PM
From: JOHN W.	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

I see an ascending triangle also with higher lows and the flat resistance at 2200, with a upside breakout very likely. Using a larger time frame, a symmetrical triangle can be seen, that we broke through on the downside today (with 2 trading days before a FED cut??) wsrn.com Maybe Haim is right, 1929 Depression,, World War, a new Hitler, and Naz 1000....

To: Boplicity who wrote (76812)	5/10/2001 10:55:20 PM
From: KymarFye	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

There are numerous indications of a topping pattern, and it seems rather obvious for the moment anyway that bullish momentum has sputtered out - two weeks of rally followed by three weeks of sideways. I took too many hits trying to short this rally to be a completely confident bear here, but I wonder how many even in the bullish camp believe that there's substantially more short-term upside. Seems even the MDD resident bulls are talking in terms of a bull trade, not a major bull move. And if I were a fund manager with those "in-flows" to deploy, would I want to do so here, or down there a bit? Seems way too soon for a rush to exponentiated PEs: Sentiment's more like that new UBS Warburg commercial where the broker tells the client interested by the mobile internet TV spot that she's already overweighted in stocks. April - May has so far traded quite similarly to Jan - Feb: The charts are very similar, including those post-Fed re-tracements. Of course, superficial visual similarities can be misleading, but you could make a case that the triangle (or uptrend) you can draw on the COMPX has ALREADY broken to the downside. Additional indicators of a topping pattern on COMPX and NDX include - today's bearish engulfing pattern indicating break to the downside of the unusual series of narrow range days we've had. - narrow range days themselves suggesting termination of trend - failure below critical resistance - 2250 on COMPX - failure below post-Labor Day downtrendline (log scale), well below it in most but not all key stocks and sectors. - accumulation-distribution has turned down (Chaikin Oscillator now negative) - failure swing at the rally top... Missing so far has been a spike of down volume, but the classical TA reading sees large volume on downward moves as further confirmationm but not as a critical indicator (old saying that it takes buying to bid stocks up, but they can fall all by themselves). The COMPX is still barely above the 20 DMA, and well above the 50, but nothing in the recent price action has confirmed the bullish crossover of a week ago. Seems to me that a re-test at least of 2000 is likely. Don't know that all of those gaps below need to be filled (or worse), but that congestion area around and below 1900 looks like an inviting target.