To: THE WATSONYOUTH who wrote (38999 ) 5/11/2001 12:28:38 AM From: dale_laroy Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 275872 >It's too late for .18um SOI. and makes NO sense if Intel is all ready at .13um with Tulatin.< Depends on whether the delay in 193nm laser optics is endemic or restricted to SVGI, as well as how long and uncertain the delay is. If Tualatin comes out on time, I have my doubts about the delay in delivery of 193nm laser optics being a problem with the design of the equipment. If the equipment is good enough to get one fab cranking out Tualatin at 130nm, its good enough to ramp four fabs. If Tualatin does not make an appearance in Q3 however, the problem may be a design problem confined to SVGI. >I still believe the IBM agreement is for .13um SOI (mobile Thoroughbreds)< The agreement is definitely for 130nm SOI. A foundry agreement would probably be for desktop Barton, with mobile Barton as well as Clawhammer and Sledgehammer being produced at Fab30. So far it appears that the agreement is strictly for the transfer of technology, which will enable AMD to use IBM's SOI process at Fab30, as well as IBM's engineering resources for the adaptation of Barton to SOI. >The question is the timing. I think second half 2002 would be the worse case assuming at least one redesign after first silicon. I'm assuming the remapping to a .13um IBM SOI process would take perhaps 5 months and that the work started last quarter. Thus... they could have first silicon sometime in the third quarter.< This seems reasonable, but if IBM uses SVGI equipment they will be subject to the same equipment delivery delays as Intel. This would place the earliest that AMD could take advantage of IBM's 130nm SOI process at Q2 2002, and adaptation of IBM's SOI process to Fab30 would take longer than 5 months. Still, Q2 2002 would seem probable even for adaptation of the IBM SOI process to Fab30. >I'm assuming the .13um bulk AMD design all ready has functional silicon.< If, as I suspect, the dual 1.8 GHz Athlon-H processors demoed recently are Thoroughbred processors, AMD does indeed have functional 130nm silicon. >If these assumptions are reasonable, with some luck, I could see a 2nd quarter 2002 release. If not.... a one quarter delay to the second half.< Since Barton is not supposed to ship until H2 2002, shipment in Q3 2002 could hardly be considered a delay. The strongest argument for H2 2002 is a perception by AMD that they will not need SOI for the 130nm Athlons until H2 2002. Judging from AMD's chart, they expect Thoroughbred to hit 2333 MHz before Barton is introduced. And, since SOI will add cost to production, why migrate to SOI before it is needed. Of course, even if AMD does not need SOI to push the peak speed grade of the desktop Athlon higher than 2333 MHz, SOI would still be useful in Q2 for the introduction of mobile Barton as well as a workstation variant of Barton.