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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (22529)	5/12/2001 11:00:14 AM
From: DebtBomb	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 37746

You all have to read this article, while agree with it that there will be no year end rebound, I doubt that there will be a summer rally of this magnitude, but it's possible that another bubble is created with all of the money flying around, be on your toes, IMO, we may begin another bubble: ``The bull market should be in a topping phase around October or November, which will probably be about the time that Wall Street will realize the economy is not going to bounce back up and there will be a recession, regardless of what Greenspan does,'' Hays says. ``Unfortunately, it will be a Fed-engineered market bubble,'' Roberge says. ``It will be a new speculative mania with new money because the Fed wants to fight a recession rather than tackle inflation." biz.yahoo.com

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (22529)	5/12/2001 11:14:22 AM
From: DebtBomb	Respond to of 37746

greenlaw, probably by years end, you will see blood in the market like you've never seen before, depending on how much of a new bubble Greenspan creates short term. Just my opinion. Agree, retailers looking like good shorts. Coal may be a good investment, may make a comeback. choooo choooo

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (22529)	5/12/2001 11:58:47 AM
From: besttrader	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 37746

I have 2 questions for you Greenlaw. Question #1. How do you KNOW that API inventories will be bullish, since the last time they were bearish. Question #2. You are saying in your post that valuations are as high now as they were at NAZ 5000 (P/E's are high). If you believe this to be so, why do you say PDLI is a buy when it has a P/E of 6225? Thanks.

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (22529)	5/12/2001 1:16:37 PM
From: American Spirit	Respond to of 37746

When bulls failed to appear yesterday I had some of my hopes dashed. But you leave out some very important factors in your gloom and doom analysis: 1) Where is all the money going to go if not stocks? 2) 3% interest rates are possible and will stimulate. 3) There are many recession-proof industries. 4) The internet is still exploding, just not e-commerce. 5) There will be mass consolidation/takeovers (LU, etc.) 6) Windows 2000 will spur a new wave of upgrading. 7) Lay-offs and lowered expectations mean beating estimates 8) Long-term bargain-hunting will continue 9) Even if the recovery is a bit late it will still be visible for what it is when it happens and in some cases like UIS is also visible and has been reported as positive guidance. 10)Some huge PE's are illusions and the stocks actually are cheap due to low market cap vs. hard assets and low burn rates 11) Stocks like NT, WCOM are still near their lows 12) Stocks like AAPL have half market caps in cash and can pop back with new product success (e-book) 13) Telcos like VZ, WCOM already have very low PE's 14) IBM has quite a low PE and is doing great etc. etc. 15) Bears are angry at the Fed for cutting but they know they will be hard-pressed to fight an aggressive Fed. All that said I'm not a big bull on the economy itself. We are in a slow growth mode now. Therefore I shy away from anything with a lofty valuation, have some oil stocks, as well as defensive stocks like VZ which went up 20% during the last big tech sell-off period. Just to counter-balance your argument. There is light at the end of the tunnel and a silver lining to those clouds.