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To: KyrosL who wrote (101754)	5/12/2001 10:33:50 AM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

shhhhhhhh Don't give me away, I was hoping to rope a few more in.-vbg-

To: KyrosL who wrote (101754)	5/20/2001 7:21:18 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

K: Last fall, did anybody think we would witness over a million lay-offs announced before the summer of 2001? And it is well known that these things tend to experience acceleration (much like the effect of gravity). Don't get me wrong..... I sure hope I am a loser on this bet, but once a deflationary spiral gets some critical mass, it is very difficult to stop the unwinding of the excesses. My main reason for believing that things can unwind very quickly relates to the impact of lay-offs on consumer spending as well as the staggering levels of both consumer and corporate debt. There is no wiggle room in the system. Best, Earlie

To: KyrosL who wrote (101754)	5/20/2001 4:44:38 PM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Earlie, Re: unemployment I don't think you will get 20% unemployment numbers from the government. But, it would not surprise me if you have a "real" 20% unemployment number. During the last recession we had a large number of people that lost their jobs and part of this population went to work as temporary employees that will not be counted in the numbers. I personally know of 4 people that have found themselves in this situation currently without a job here in downtown Plymouth. These people do not have unemployment insurance or a medical insurance safety net. The corporations are offering early retirements at 55 and these people will not get counted either. We all know that early retirement pay is not something one can live on and these people can not collect Social Security therefore they need an income from some source. The bottom line is I agree with your assumption that the consumer generated part of the GDP is going to be in trouble. Here in Minneapolis we are seeing an unemployment backlash from the GE/Honeywell get together. It will be interesting to see what the States revenue numbers look like in July and August. Joan