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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (15754)	5/13/2001 11:42:20 AM
From: SBHX	Respond to of 30051

Zeev, that business to be dead for a number of years As most here already know, the problem doesn't just end there. Companies who auctioned successfully for 3G spectrum are also now looking at a few years of dead money as these launches are delayed. Software and handsets and solutions providers to anything in 3G are looking at another 2 yrs of bleak numbers as their business plans get tested against reality. widespread 3G is a good way to use that fiber capacity, but it's not happening yet. Telecom is not a nice place to be for a while. The ripple effect is felt everywhere. On the bright side, the bottom for PC appears to be near. SbH

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (15754)	5/13/2001 12:17:08 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30051

unlit fiber is a fallacious approach to determining capacity since 99.9% of expense is from active components (lasers, modulators), the lit/unlit fiber element in the equation is irrelevant maybe I am misinterpreting comments here this is hardly the same as clearing a forest and building a road prior to building a neighborhd of houses if they want to lay down some fiber lines, they lay down 10x what they need incremental cost is minimal this results in big apparent unused capacity but that misses the point of active components to make it all work a buddy of mine works in firm issuing reports on fiber capacity he gave me the above lecture on miscalculation of capacity this is a tricky and very misleading concept hardly the same as unused computer capacity, or networking capacity they predict a resurgence in fo demand by 2002 and a big big bandwidth shortage by end 2002, early 2003 content is coming, devices are starting to show up / jim

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (15754)	5/13/2001 12:47:15 PM
From: dwayanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

..."more than 97% of fiber-optic capacity goes unused."? That is unimaginable. ... I would call it imaginable but misleading. The fiber network constructors like Level 3, once having gone to the time and expense of routing, huts, trenching, and terminating facilities, found it a minor additional expense to throw in 5 or 10 times the physical fiber lines in those trenches. Level 3 as I recall, installed 150 or so fiber pairs in its major cross country routes, as well as as much again empty conduit. Apply today's max equipment capability to all that unused cross country fiber and I can see someone arriving at a 97% figure. But most of this is dark or completely unconnected fiber. The terminal capability (eg metro rings or general "last 30 miles" facilities), to say nothing of the "last mile" facilities, are not there and no one has paid for them yet. Picture in Washington DC or New York, the work required to get from a few regional network centers to having all the businesses in the area wired up with fiber. On general overcapacity, Global Crossing has in its business plan I believe a planned 40% or so per year drop in revenue per bandwidth unit, so overcapacity is not a surprise to anyone. On a different topic, note from that article that a desperate Northpoint got $135 million for its 'DSL footprint' facilities in local Bell central office buildings, which the article said was 50 cents on the dollar of cost. This implies that eg Covad and Rythms are sitting on serious monetizable assets where they have shoehorned non-Bell space and equipment into Bell facilities. Regardless, I think the general thrust of the article will turn out true, that a lot of the small new 'telco' companies will be going under or getting bought out, and perhaps a few of the big telco's will fall under the weight of 3G license debt and bad acquisition costs versus slowing economy and insufficient or non-existent demand. - Dway