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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (76935)	5/13/2001 2:55:13 PM
From: t2	Respond to of 99985

Zeev, Thanks for that excellent explanation. I am learning TA a bit at a time. In the meantime, still expecting the rally that may go against some technical indicators. Will be an interesting week.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (76935)	5/13/2001 3:14:08 PM
From: captaintime	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Zeev, I have been following your commentary here and on the channeling thread this year; have been 95% cash since May 1. I believe you recommend perhaps a 20%-30% position in equities. Can you recommend 3 or 4 companies that may be suitable for long term buy and holds as core positions to acquire Monday before the FED moves on Tuesday? Thanks. Captaintime

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (76935)	5/13/2001 5:54:48 PM
From: Mike M	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Zeev, it could happen tomorrow, but, until the MACD fast line breaks through, the momentum remains to the upside. We certainly saw a number of times when the market was dropping that the fast line simply continued to run down from the point of intersection. Stochastic shows the short term oversold. The daily still looks overbought. Could be a day or two of attempted rally. This market remains dangerous in both directions right now.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (76935)	5/13/2001 7:14:57 PM
From: American Spirit	Respond to of 99985

What makes the "manipulation" upward any different than the prior "manipulation" downward? We saw "criminal" acts there in March like the rumoring that LU was going bankrupt. And those do a lot more harm to our economy and people. Frankly, manipulation of all kinds never ceases in all directions. Yet no one controls the market. Not even Greenspan. And if you think he is in cahoots with Wall Street you're delusional. He's the one who popped the bubble last year, remember? No, the reason Greenspan wants to keep cutting and prop up the market is so that we can avoid a deep recession. So unless you enjoy recessions and hardship he is definitely doing the right thing. Bears sound confident this weekend but there is no special evidence to support increased pessimism. In fact there are many rays of sunshine visible, bad news is priced in and the market is still pretty near it's low, which I do not believe it's going to re-test. The new bottom will be sighnificantly higher IMHO. The Naz might not even fall back below 1950. To get back down to 1650 you'd need INTC back to 22, IBM back to 85, NOK back to 22, these types of movements. Just ain't gonna happen. Buyers would step in much sooner. The trading range of these stocks is now higher and for good reasons. In fact I fully expect these stocks to trade significantly higher this year, so the only question is when does it happen and what is the new trading range? We just have a new leadership that's all, IBM, MSFT and NOK instead of CSCO, SUNW and NT. Shorts like to point to such stocks as NT but look at the poor thing, it's sitting just above its 52-week low. HWP IS at its 52-week low. AAPL, UIS, PALM, NOVL, all cheap-cheap down near bottoms. Baby Bells never rallied. WCOM's down near its low despite 12 billion cash in the bank now. LU's below 10 with a potential $19 buy-out coming. SCNT, RRRR, COMS and AETH are below cash in the bank. etc. Fact is we have already slipped down from the highs two weeks ago. 25-30% down in some cases. Check them all and you'll see. Sure there are some over-valued individual stocks and we could slip and slide a bit but I fail to see the over-valuation in the type stocks I mention above. On the contrary in fact. And this Fed cut of .50 should give bulls another shot in the arm. As will the next one. The Bulls simply ran out of steam last week after a do-nothing 4 sessions. They decided to take profits for awhile. But they will be back. I frankly don't see why last week gives bears any sense of confidence. Even CSCO may not be worth $20 right now but it may be worth twice that within a year and many people realize this. Ditto NT. Show me one tech stock that couldn't go up at least 50% this year. There aren't any. Anyway, let's just keep a level head here. I'm cautious now but no need to panic. Bears have nothing to cheer about. They already had their big feast last year. Nowit's just a matter of 20% in either direction, and the bias may still be up. 50-50 chance of it anyway. And eventually it will definitely be up. IMHO only of course.