Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Jackson who wrote (39365)	5/13/2001 8:03:20 PM
From: AK2004	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Bill and here is Bear Stearns trying to put out the fire by pouring gasoline on it. Regards -Albert 08:03am EDT 11-May-01 Bear Stearns (J. Neff/Bobba/Hand (212) 272-4247) CMNT SGI Computer Week In Preview: May 14, 2001 PART 1 .......................................... The Case for 2002. While it's early, we can begin to make a case for a stronger demand situation for PCs in 2002. It's too early for stocks to trade on this outlook, but we want to highlight why it may be time to "think different" about PCs, which everyone knows is a dinosaur industry (although 145 million units and 10% trendline growth is pretty good for a dinosaur.) First, we should preface with the idea that we no longer look for the "killer app" because the industry is too big. Instead, we look for multiple drivers that could fuel or inhibit demand. Given this outlook, as we look at 2002, we see several drivers that could emerge -- and one or two question marks. Y2K Replacement. With three-year depreciation cycles, one could argue that there should be a wave of replacement demand beginning in 2002, tied to the Y2K buying in 1998-99. We would note Michael Dell's comments this week that he expects the PC replacement cycle to gain momentum as the year progresses. Based on a starting point of 2Q99, a 3-year time frame points to 2Q02, which is roughly the replacement cycle for all PCs installed in anticipation of Y2K. He also noted that while the precise timing of replacement demand is difficult to forecast, he would expect reasonable industry growth for the fourth quarter 2001 and first quarter 2002. Wireless ethernet. Wireless ethernet could be a driver of demand for notebooks to enable "cordless phone" availability of PCs Pentium 4. In retrospect, Intel did not handle launch of Pentium 4 with its usual aplomb. Usually a new "number" spurs demand, but it did not happen in late 2000 owing to a combination of factors: Pentium 4 launch was late, Intel made a weak case for Pentium 4 and it hit during a economic slowdown. Tying Pentium 4 with Windows XP, one could argue for a wave of demand later this year or in early 2002. Windows XP. A new OS can also be another driver for demand. As noted by Microsoft, the compelling aspects of Windows XP, which is scheduled to ship on October 25 in two editions, include a new, rich feature set as well as enhanced reliability, performance and security. Economic Factors. The big question mark is the world economies, but if lower interest rates take hold, this could be another driver. ........................................