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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Edmond Katonica who wrote (1131)	5/14/2001 11:34:08 AM
From: excardog	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206192

Some natural gas price thoughts First off let me say that we all have been going round and round in our thinking some see down some see up here's what my thinking has come up with. In listening to several conference call replays over the weekend one thing I gleaned was all those that can fuel switch presumedly have. This seems reasonable don't you think? Let's look forward then because that's how we make money. Hind sight rarely pays my bills. Those that have fuel switched will continue to to buy distillates even though refineries will be producing gasoline so won't we see a continuing drop on that side of the API? Large draws on the distillates should force futures prices higher. Larger AGA builds over the short run should push natural gas prices lower. Setting up decision making time for those that fuel switch. The key point will be when do these large users go back to natural gas. My guess is sometime mid to late summer when there becomes concern over very tight heating oil supplies for the coming winter. Add in all the other factors ( new power plants etc.) and natural gas supplies should remain tight. One assumption I'm making is when a company fuel switches they don't just flick a switch it requires some tweaking here and there. Second assumption is large users would prefer to use natural gas just not $10 stuff. Anyway that's kind of who I see it. Haven't decided how to play it yet though. Open to flames and thoughts. Best